Iran leadership-change odds hold near zero through a volume rush

Name: Iran leadership-change odds hold near zero through a volume rush
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-01T09:55:41+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

5% · $272K 24h

record: CMSIG20260801VS01 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-TYRP27H901 | published: 2026-08-01

4-bullet brief | narrative

Market holds at 5%, near-certain 'no' on an Iran leadership change before August 31.
24h volume of $272K is 78% of all-time flow; almost the entire contract lifetime traded today.
Spike likely reflects a news catalyst, a threat, health report, or geopolitical flashpoint, that drew attention but did not move the price.
Resolves August 31, 2026; three weeks remain for the contract to run.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $272.1K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/iran-leadership-change-by/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x43e12647a58ee0b20d2539d23764b0d561ea7be322acb8823f7bb126e67c115e

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-leadership-change-by-august-31-vol-272129/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-leadership-change-by-august-31-vol-272129.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iran-leadership-change-by-august-31-vol-272129")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260801VS01",
  "published_at": "2026-08-01T09:55:41+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-leadership-change-by",
  "event_question": "Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Market holds at 5%, near-certain 'no' on an Iran leadership change before August 31.",
    "24h volume of $272K is 78% of all-time flow; almost the entire contract lifetime traded today.",
    "Spike likely reflects a news catalyst, a threat, health report, or geopolitical flashpoint, that drew attention but did not move the price.",
    "Resolves August 31, 2026; three weeks remain for the contract to run."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 272129.1662449999
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-leadership-change-by/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-leadership-change-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:55:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260801VS01 published 2026-08-01T09:55:41+00:00 signature sha256-2e87020c3f9… ← underlying event all signals →