Will Iran's leadership change by 2026? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2027-06 ]
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 13 | 2026-03-18 | 0.1% | — | — | C | 0x352559…884a | ||
| March 31 | 2026-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $3.23M | C | 0xcc0792…8027 | ||
| April 30 | 2026-05-01 | 0.2% | — | $4.96M | C | 0xb41266…6793 | ||
| May 31 | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $3.41M | C | 0x2f6a54…d6b7 | ||
| June 30 | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $4.39M | C | 0xb196a1…4291 | ||
| July 31 | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $84K | $750K | C | 0x0d3ad3…80fc | ||
| August 31 | 2026-08-31 | 5.4% | $3.4K | $4.1K | C | 0x43e126…115e | ||
| September 30 | 2026-09-30 | 13.0% | $171 | $66K | C | 0x094772…9920 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 28.0% | $14K | $3.40M | C | 0x377e7f…5607 | ||
| June 30, 2027 | 2027-06-30 | 39.0% | $565 | $96K | C | 0xe80243…6165 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Iran leadership change by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Iran leadership-change odds hold near zero through a volume rush 5% · $272K 24h
- Market holds at 5%, near-certain 'no' on an Iran leadership change before August 31.
- 24h volume of $272K is 78% of all-time flow; almost the entire contract lifetime traded today.
- Spike likely reflects a news catalyst, a threat, health report, or geopolitical flashpoint, that drew attention but did not move the price.
- Resolves August 31, 2026; three weeks remain for the contract to run.
- Iran leadership-change odds stay low through August 8% · $26K 24h
- Polymarket prices an Iran leadership change by Aug 31 at 8%, traders broadly discount the scenario.
- 55% of all-time volume cleared in 24h, implying a sharp geopolitical catalyst drove renewed attention.
- Escalating Iran-related headlines, sanctions, nuclear talks, or internal unrest, are the likely trigger.
- Hard deadline of Aug 31 keeps the contract a near-term binary; resolution is weeks away.
- Iran leadership change by September 30 sits at 11% on fresh bets 11% · $28K 24h
- Polymarket prices an Iran leadership change by September 30 at 11%, elevated tail risk but not a base case.
- $28K in 24h marks 25% of all-time volume, exactly at the quarter-lifetime threshold, indicating renewed interest.
- Re-engagement at 11% likely reflects escalating regional tension, sanctions news, or internal political reporting.
- Contract resolves on a confirmed change in Iran's supreme leader or presidential office before September 30, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-leadership-change-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-leadership-change-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-leadership-change-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
"slug": "iran-leadership-change-by",
"question": "Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"leadership-succession",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20313140,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}