Fed funds above 3.75% prices in as rate hike nears

Name: Fed funds above 3.75% prices in as rate hike nears
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026091101 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91 | published: 2026-09-11

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 81% above 3.75%, but only 2% above 4.0%.
August CPI data released Sept. 11 matched forecasts on headline but core beat at 0.3% month-over-month; the Kalshi distribution is fully consistent with a 25bp hike, not a larger move.
Volume on this ladder surged 61x day-over-day, signaling a sharp burst of fresh positioning around the FOMC meeting this week.
The Polymarket contract on Bank of England rate hikes in 2026 sits at 81%, suggesting global central bank tightening pressure is broadly repricing in tandem.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Elevated August CPI data, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month, is keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its upcoming meeting.exa_search → nytimes.com · as_of 2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00
publisher: nytimes.com
published_at: 2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/business/economy/inflation-cpi-august.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; the tight 3.75-4.0% clustering leaves virtually no probability on a hold or a 50bp move.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-11/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-11.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-11")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091101",
  "published_at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound, next FOMC meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 81% above 3.75%, but only 2% above 4.0%.",
    "August CPI data released Sept. 11 matched forecasts on headline but core beat at 0.3% month-over-month; the Kalshi distribution is fully consistent with a 25bp hike, not a larger move.",
    "Volume on this ladder surged 61x day-over-day, signaling a sharp burst of fresh positioning around the FOMC meeting this week.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Bank of England rate hikes in 2026 sits at 81%, suggesting global central bank tightening pressure is broadly repricing in tandem."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nytimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/business/economy/inflation-cpi-august.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Elevated August CPI data, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month, is keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its upcoming meeting.",
      "publisher": "nytimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/business/economy/inflation-cpi-august.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; the tight 3.75-4.0% clustering leaves virtually no probability on a hold or a 50bp move."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nytimes.com: Elevated Inflation Keeps Pressure on Fed to Raise Rates - The New York",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/business/economy/inflation-cpi-august.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026091101 published 2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-19cc5db9fb8… ← underlying event all signals →