Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-09-16 (105D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-09-16 | 98.0% | — | $3.4K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-09-16 | 97.0% | — | $3.2K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-09-16 | 87.0% | $4 | $3.9K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-09-16 | 91.0% | $1 | $11K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-09-16 | 34.0% | — | $2.1K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-09-16 | 15.0% | — | $369 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-09-16 | 2.0% | — | $40 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-09-16 | 2.0% | — | $32 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-09-16 | 2.0% | — | $14 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-09-16 | 3.0% | — | $8 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-09-16 | 3.0% | — | $8 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ recent wire items
- Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi 78%
- Kalshi pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 94% above 3.25%, 78% above 3.50%, only 34% above 3.75%.
- CME FedWatch hike odds signal hawkish drift, but Kalshi pricing stays below 4.00%, consistent with hold rather than hike near-term.
- Companion ladder CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50 prices 96% above 3.50% but collapses to 2% above 3.75%, confirming both markets see 3.50% as the ceiling floor.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any emergency inter-meeting move would settle at actual upper bound.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26sep.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
"slug": "kxfed-26sep",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-economy",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24027,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}