Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-09-23 (62D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-09-23 | 99.0% | — | $5.4K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-09-23 | 98.0% | $8 | $5.9K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-09-23 | 99.0% | $18 | $6.4K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-09-23 | 93.0% | $2.7K | $14K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-09-23 | 67.0% | $121 | $34K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-09-23 | 17.0% | $12 | $2.4K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-09-23 | 3.0% | $1 | $148 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-09-23 | 1.0% | — | $38 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-09-23 | 1.0% | — | $14 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-09-23 | 1.0% | $0 | $3 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-09-23 | 1.0% | — | $5 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve's official website from rules text · editorial
- Federal Reserve statement from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Rate cut odds stay low as Trump pressure on Fed continues Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 59% that the fed funds upper bound stays above 3.75% following the July meeting, with only 3% above 4.0%.
- Trump's push for rate cuts as economic rocket fuel has not moved the Fed, and Kalshi pricing is consistent with an extended hold rather than any imminent cut.
- The ladder shows 98% above 3.50%, meaning the market effectively rules out a cut to or below 3.50% at the next decision point.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 puts only 6% on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing that deep cut scenarios remain firmly off the table.
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75% after July hold Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the post-July Fed funds upper bound near 3.75%, with 57% above 3.75% but only 3% above 4.0%.
- The Fed held at 3.5-3.75% as reported, which is broadly consistent with the ladder's sharp drop-off above 4.0%.
- Three dissents for a hike signal internal pressure, yet the ladder puts just 3% odds on 4.0% or higher, market is not pricing escalation.
- The 57% split at the 3.75% strike reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the upper bound sits at exactly 3.75% vs. 3.5%, not about a hike.
- Fed funds upper bound stays near 3.75 percent after hold Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the July 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range, with 99% above 3.50% but only 4% above 4.0%.
- The Fed's 9-3 hold decision keeps the upper bound at 3.75%, consistent with the ladder's sharp drop-off above that level.
- Three dissents favoring a hike push modest odds to the 4.0% strike, but the distribution shows markets still see a hike as a tail risk.
- The Kalshi contract on a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year sits at 9%, confirming the market sees little near-term easing.
- Fed funds upper bound seen settling near 3.75 to 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the July 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 65% above 3.75%, only 12% above 4.0%.
- News portrays the July decision as genuinely unpredictable; the Kalshi distribution confirms it, with sharp probability drop-off above 3.75% signaling majority bets on a hold near current levels.
- Trading volume on this Kalshi ladder surged 396x day-over-day, the strongest signal of fresh market attention in this batch.
- A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) implies a tighter 3.5-3.75% range at 99% above 3.5% but only 26% above 3.75%, suggesting some disagreement on the precise terminal level across contracts.
- Rate hike odds stay short of one-in-two despite historic jobs data Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 12% probability the Fed funds upper bound exceeds 4.0% after the July meeting.
- Headlines claim hike odds are past one-in-three, but the Kalshi distribution puts a hike above 4.0% at just 12%, materially below that framing.
- Volume on this Kalshi ladder rose 396x day-over-day, confirming the jobs print is drawing heavy fresh attention even as outright hike pricing remains a minority view.
- The 3.75% strike at 65% suggests markets see the most likely outcome as a hold at current levels, not a hike.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
"slug": "kxfed-26sep",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-economy",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 69049,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}