Rate cut odds stay low as Trump pressure on Fed continues

Name: Rate cut odds stay low as Trump pressure on Fed continues
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026080102 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91 | published: 2026-08-01

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices 59% that the fed funds upper bound stays above 3.75% following the July meeting, with only 3% above 4.0%.
Trump's push for rate cuts as economic rocket fuel has not moved the Fed, and Kalshi pricing is consistent with an extended hold rather than any imminent cut.
The ladder shows 98% above 3.50%, meaning the market effectively rules out a cut to or below 3.50% at the next decision point.
Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 puts only 6% on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing that deep cut scenarios remain firmly off the table.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: President Donald Trump has sought aggressive rate cuts as economic stimulus but the Fed has held rates steady for five consecutive meetings.exa_search → apnews.com · as_of 2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00
publisher: apnews.com
published_at: 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/trump-interest-rates-midterms-iran-9db7b892114e7863064323396f633c9d

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve; the 3.75% strike at 59% is the pivotal level separating hold-flat from a possible future cut scenario.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-75-post-july-kalshi-59-2026-08-01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-75-post-july-kalshi-59-2026-08-01.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-above-3-75-post-july-kalshi-59-2026-08-01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080102",
  "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound post-July 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 59% that the fed funds upper bound stays above 3.75% following the July meeting, with only 3% above 4.0%.",
    "Trump's push for rate cuts as economic rocket fuel has not moved the Fed, and Kalshi pricing is consistent with an extended hold rather than any imminent cut.",
    "The ladder shows 98% above 3.50%, meaning the market effectively rules out a cut to or below 3.50% at the next decision point.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 puts only 6% on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing that deep cut scenarios remain firmly off the table."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-interest-rates-midterms-iran-9db7b892114e7863064323396f633c9d",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "President Donald Trump has sought aggressive rate cuts as economic stimulus but the Fed has held rates steady for five consecutive meetings.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-interest-rates-midterms-iran-9db7b892114e7863064323396f633c9d"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve; the 3.75% strike at 59% is the pivotal level separating hold-flat from a possible future cut scenario."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Trump has been losing his battle to cut interest rates | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-interest-rates-midterms-iran-9db7b892114e7863064323396f633c9d",
      "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026080102 published 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-80c307d57cc… ← underlying event all signals →