Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi 78%

Name: Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi 78%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-01T16:15:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

record: CMSIG2026060101 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91 | published: 2026-06-01

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 94% above 3.25%, 78% above 3.50%, only 34% above 3.75%.
CME FedWatch hike odds signal hawkish drift, but Kalshi pricing stays below 4.00%, consistent with hold rather than hike near-term.
Companion ladder CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50 prices 96% above 3.50% but collapses to 2% above 3.75%, confirming both markets see 3.50% as the ceiling floor.
Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any emergency inter-meeting move would settle at actual upper bound.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: CME FedWatch shows 28% of traders pricing a December Fed rate hike, the first non-zero hike odds since 2023, as markets push first cut to September.exa_search → Warren Cohen · as_of 2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00
publisher: Warren Cohen
published_at: 2026-06-01T16:15:00.000Z
source_url: https://thefinancialwire.com/markets-priced-the-first-fed-rate-cut-no-earlier-than-september-and-28-of-cme-fedwatch-traders-now-bet-on-a-december-hike-the-first-non-zero-hike-odds-since-2023/

[02] pm_response

interp: Two Kalshi ladders converge on a 3.50% ceiling with near-zero probability above 3.75%, sharply at odds with the 28% December hike odds cited by CME FedWatch.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset` + `ClaimReview`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-78-2026-06-01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-78-2026-06-01.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-78-2026-06-01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060101",
  "published_at": "2026-06-01T16:15:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound after next meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 94% above 3.25%, 78% above 3.50%, only 34% above 3.75%.",
    "CME FedWatch hike odds signal hawkish drift, but Kalshi pricing stays below 4.00%, consistent with hold rather than hike near-term.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50 prices 96% above 3.50% but collapses to 2% above 3.75%, confirming both markets see 3.50% as the ceiling floor.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any emergency inter-meeting move would settle at actual upper bound."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Warren Cohen",
          "source_url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/markets-priced-the-first-fed-rate-cut-no-earlier-than-september-and-28-of-cme-fedwatch-traders-now-bet-on-a-december-hike-the-first-non-zero-hike-odds-since-2023/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "CME FedWatch shows 28% of traders pricing a December Fed rate hike, the first non-zero hike odds since 2023, as markets push first cut to September.",
      "publisher": "Warren Cohen",
      "published_at": "2026-06-01T16:15:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/markets-priced-the-first-fed-rate-cut-no-earlier-than-september-and-28-of-cme-fedwatch-traders-now-bet-on-a-december-hike-the-first-non-zero-hike-odds-since-2023/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Two Kalshi ladders converge on a 3.50% ceiling with near-zero probability above 3.75%, sharply at odds with the 28% December hike odds cited by CME FedWatch."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Warren Cohen: Markets priced the first Fed rate cut no earlier than September, and",
      "url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/markets-priced-the-first-fed-rate-cut-no-earlier-than-september-and-28-of-cme-fedwatch-traders-now-bet-on-a-december-hike-the-first-non-zero-hike-odds-since-2023/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-01T16:15:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026060101 published 2026-06-01T16:15:00.000Z signature sha256-87409726555… ← underlying event all signals →