Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 stays a long shot at 29 percent

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  "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
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  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 29% on the Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Tuesday's cloture vote is a necessary but not sufficient step; the market reflects significant doubt the bill clears both chambers and gains presidential signature this year.",
    "Companion ladder (CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6) implies roughly 60 Senate yea votes, sitting right at the 60-vote cloture threshold and flagging procedural risk.",
    "At 29%, the law-by-2026 contract prices in passage failure risk even if cloture succeeds, given House and presidential signature steps remaining."
  ],
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        "story": {
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          "source": "Garrett Downs",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/clarity-act-senate-vote-crypto-regulation.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-14T14:41:02+00:00"
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        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
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      "story": "The Senate is set to hold a make-or-break cloture vote Tuesday on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a major crypto regulatory framework bill.",
      "publisher": "Garrett Downs",
      "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/clarity-act-senate-vote-crypto-regulation.html"
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      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on whether H.R. 3633 is signed into law before January 1, 2027."
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  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Garrett Downs: Clarity Act faces crucial Senate vote Tuesday in big moment for crypto",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/clarity-act-senate-vote-crypto-regulation.html",
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