Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 5.1% | $100K | $3.88M | A | 0x9cb23d…f390 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633 sources (2) · single authority
congress.gov venue-listed official information from the government of the United States from rules text
recent wire items
- Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 5%
- The Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 sits at just 5%, resolves via UMA oracle.
- The Senate's 49-50 procedural failure is consistent with the 5% pricing; the bill would need to clear the Senate and presidential signature before year-end.
- The Kalshi Senate Yea vote ladder confirms the market saw a sub-50 outcome as the most likely scenario before the vote was taken.
- The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on a signed-into-law outcome; Senate failure at the procedural stage makes House reconsideration or Senate reattempt the only remaining paths.
- Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 stays a long shot at 29 percent Polymarket 29%
- Polymarket puts 29% on the Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Tuesday's cloture vote is a necessary but not sufficient step; the market reflects significant doubt the bill clears both chambers and gains presidential signature this year.
- Companion ladder (CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6) implies roughly 60 Senate yea votes, sitting right at the 60-vote cloture threshold and flagging procedural risk.
- At 29%, the law-by-2026 contract prices in passage failure risk even if cloture succeeds, given House and presidential signature steps remaining.
- Clarity Act passage by year-end holds below 25% Polymarket 21%
- Polymarket prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 at 21%, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Despite a make-or-break Senate cloture vote Tuesday and Trump backing the bill with new ethics concessions, Polymarket still puts better than 3-in-4 odds against passage this year.
- Bitcoin trading near $77,000-$80,000 (Story 30, 32) is a correlated signal, crypto asset prices are rallying on legislative hope even as the prediction market stays skeptical on actual enactment.
- Passage requires Senate cloture, floor vote, House concurrence, and presidential signature all before December 31, 2026, a tight sequential path that explains the discount.
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 17%
- Polymarket prices a 17% chance the CLARITY Act is signed into law by the end of 2026, keeping it a clear long shot.
- SEC proposing Regulation Crypto adds regulatory momentum, but the Polymarket contract shows markets do not treat this as a near-term legislative lock.
- The Senate yea-vote ladder (CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6) implying sub-50 votes reinforces the 17% full-enactment price; passage and signature are two separate hurdles.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the contract requires presidential signature by December 31, 2026, not just Senate passage.
- CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 19%
- Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 19%, a clear long-shot read.
- Trading volume on this Polymarket contract surged 1,787% day over day, reflecting a flood of fresh activity after the Senate delay announcement.
- The Kalshi Senate vote-count ladder (CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6) implies fewer than 50 Yea votes, consistent with passage risk: 37% at 50 votes, falling sharply above.
- The September 15 procedural vote is a hard gate; failure there would almost certainly push the probability to single digits for the 2026 deadline.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
"slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"us-legislation",
"crypto-regulation",
"2026-events",
"trump-administration",
"policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3878170,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Congress.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the government of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}