Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 27.0% | $116K | $2.42M | A | 0x9cb23d…f390 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633 sources (2) · single authority
- congress.gov source of record venue-listed
- official information from the government of the United States from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Clarity Act signed into law this year stays below 30 percent Polymarket 28%
- The Polymarket prediction market prices a 28% chance the Clarity Act is signed into law in 2026.
- The SEC and CFTC pursuing their own parallel regulatory framework via Project Crypto is consistent with below-30% odds on the standalone legislative path.
- A competing agency-driven approach could reduce Congress's urgency to pass the Clarity Act, putting further downward pressure on the Polymarket contract.
- Resolution is via UMA oracle; the contract requires a presidential signature on the Clarity Act before year-end 2026.
- CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 priced below 40% Polymarket 39%
- Polymarket prices a 39% chance the Clarity Act is signed into law in 2026, a minority probability reflecting real legislative uncertainty.
- Stalled Senate talks are consistent with the sub-40% read; the market is not pricing the bill as likely to pass this year.
- Bitcoin's drop to below $64,700 (Story 34/35) correlates with the legislative setback, but the BTC price-level ladder (CM-EVT-R55TT711T7) already implies Bitcoin below $67,500 by July 31 at 61%, suggesting the market had priced in weakness before the stall.
- Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the bill requires Senate Republican votes plus Democratic crossover support, the resolution trigger is presidential signature.
- CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 holds minority pricing Polymarket 36%
- Polymarket prices 36% on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026.
- Warren's conflict-of-interest scrutiny of Trump's reported $1.4 billion crypto income introduces a bipartisan complication the market appears to be discounting moderately.
- At 36%, the market sees passage as a minority outcome; Senate opposition driven by disclosure concerns could widen that gap.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4 on broader crypto market structure legislation prices 40%, a tight spread suggesting cross-venue consensus on slim-but-real odds.
- CLARITY Act passage in 2026 holds below 50% Polymarket 43%
- Polymarket prices a 43% probability that the CLARITY Act is signed into law in 2026.
- Warren's ethics pushback and Trump's crypto income scrutiny are consistent with the below-50% pricing; the market does not yet see passage as a base case.
- Story 35 reports Trump has agreed to ethics amendments as the final hurdle; if confirmed, that could shift the distribution materially, but no official White House confirmation exists yet.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle on signing by the President; Senate passage and House reconciliation both remain prerequisites.
- US crypto Clarity Act signing by year-end holds near 50% Polymarket 52%
- Polymarket prediction market prices 52% on the U.S. Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026.
- Japan's sweeping crypto tax reform raises the stakes for U.S. competitiveness, and the near-coin-flip Polymarket price suggests U.S. legislation remains genuinely uncertain.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4 prices 40% on any U.S. crypto market structure bill becoming law by January 1, 2027, a 12-point gap that may reflect different bill-scope definitions.
- Resolves via congress.gov confirmation that the Clarity Act has been signed into law by December 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
"slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"us-legislation",
"trump-administration",
"2026-resolution",
"regulatory-policy",
"bitcoin-bitcoin"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2423574,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "congress.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the government of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}