August CPI momentum wavers around the 0.3 to 0.4 percent band

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061003",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26aug",
  "event_question": "August 2026 CPI monthly change",
  "bullets": [
    "CPI ladder implies August 2026 monthly change centered in the 0.30-0.40% range: 61% above 0.30% but only 45% above 0.40%.",
    "May's hot 0.47% monthly print is above the market's implied central tendency for August, suggesting the market does not fully expect the energy-driven surge to persist into late summer.",
    "The distribution still prices 35% above 0.50%, leaving a meaningful tail for continued elevated inflation if Iran-related energy shocks persist.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics August CPI release; seasonal adjustment methodology and energy price path between now and August are the key settlement variables."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "wolfstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-4-25-blows-by-2-year-treasury-yield-closes-in-on-10-year-treasury-driven-by-supercore-services-gasoline-electricity/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May CPI jumped 0.47% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, driven by supercore services, gasoline, and AI-driven electricity demand, reaching 4.25% year-over-year.",
      "publisher": "wolfstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-4-25-blows-by-2-year-treasury-yield-closes-in-on-10-year-treasury-driven-by-supercore-services-gasoline-electricity/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution for August 2026 CPI monthly change centers on 0.30-0.40%, below May's 0.47% print, indicating the market expects some moderation but retains a 35% tail above 0.50%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26aug/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "wolfstreet.com: CPI Inflation 4.25%, Blows by 2-Year Treasury Yield, Closes in on 10-Y",
      "url": "https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-4-25-blows-by-2-year-treasury-yield-closes-in-on-10-year-treasury-driven-by-supercore-services-gasoline-electricity/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}