Will the Consumer Price Index increase in August? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2026-12 ]
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0.1% | 2026-09-11 | 100.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2026-09-11 | 0.0% | — | $526 | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4 | ||
| ≥ -0.4% | 2026-12-11 | 85.0% | — | $2 | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.4 | ||
| ≥ -0.3% | 2026-12-11 | 88.0% | — | $18 | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.3 | ||
| ≥ -0.2% | 2026-12-11 | 76.0% | — | $147 | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.2 | ||
| ≥ -0.1% | 2026-12-11 | 69.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0% | 2026-12-11 | 74.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.2% | 2026-12-11 | 61.0% | $7 | $1.8K | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2026-12-11 | 47.0% | $8 | $2.5K | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2026-12-11 | 43.0% | — | $979 | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.5 | ||
| ≥ 0.6% | 2026-12-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.6 | ||
| ≥ 0.7% | 2026-12-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.7 | ||
| ≥ 0.8% | 2026-12-11 | 31.0% | — | $4 | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.8 | ||
| ≥ 0.9% | 2026-12-11 | 31.0% | $12 | $41 | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.9 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2026-12-11 | 6.0% | — | $0 | A | KXCPI-26AUG-T1.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in August 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-11 | 100% |
| NO | Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-11 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- August CPI near flat stays the market call after PPI miss Kalshi ladder
- The CPI ladder prices the August 2026 month-on-month change in the 0.3-0.4% range: 97% above 0.1%, but only 59% above 0.3% and 13% above 0.4%.
- August PPI came in at -0.1% versus +0.3% expected; the CPI ladder's implied range is notably above the PPI print, suggesting markets see CPI as still positive despite the producer-price shock.
- The mismatch between a deep PPI undershoot and a CPI ladder still centered near 0.3% points to a services/shelter wedge keeping consumer inflation stickier than wholesale prices.
- The Kalshi contract on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in 2026 sits at 76%, a cross-check on whether Friday's CPI would need to deliver a second consecutive surprise to shift that terminal rate view.
- August CPI above 0.1% priced as near-certain 99% · $29K 24h
- Kalshi prices a greater-than-0.1% August CPI print at 99%, effectively a consensus lock-in.
- 49% of all-time volume cleared in 24h, coinciding with proximity to the scheduled BLS release.
- Near-unanimous pricing leaves almost no tradeable edge; volume likely reflects hedging rather than directional bets.
- Resolves on BLS August 2026 CPI release, expected mid-September 2026.
- August CPI month-over-month consensus anchors near 0.3 to 0.4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies August 2026 CPI MoM in the 0.3-0.4% range: 61% above 0.3%, 45% above 0.4%, 35% above 0.5%.
- May PPI at 6.5% YoY and upstream energy pressure are broadly consistent with elevated forward CPI readings priced into the August ladder.
- The 35% probability above 0.5% reflects a live upside tail, Iran war energy pass-through into consumer prices has not yet fully resolved.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics official CPI release for August 2026; the trimmed-mean ladder structure means each strike settles independently.
- August CPI momentum wavers around the 0.3 to 0.4 percent band Kalshi ladder
- CPI ladder implies August 2026 monthly change centered in the 0.30-0.40% range: 61% above 0.30% but only 45% above 0.40%.
- May's hot 0.47% monthly print is above the market's implied central tendency for August, suggesting the market does not fully expect the energy-driven surge to persist into late summer.
- The distribution still prices 35% above 0.50%, leaving a meaningful tail for continued elevated inflation if Iran-related energy shocks persist.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics August CPI release; seasonal adjustment methodology and energy price path between now and August are the key settlement variables.
- August CPI rise above 0.4 percent priced near a coin flip Kalshi 45%
- Kalshi implies August 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.3-0.4% range: 61% above 0.3% but only 45% above 0.4%.
- Hot ISM prices-paid readings are consistent with a market expecting continued above-target monthly inflation prints.
- The 84% probability above 0.1% signals near-universal rejection of any near-term disinflation.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics official CPI release for August 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26aug/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpi-26aug |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpi-26aug") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
"slug": "kxcpi-26aug",
"question": "Will the Consumer Price Index increase in August?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"cpi",
"inflation",
"economics",
"us-economy",
"august-2026",
"macroeconomic-indicator"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10543,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Source Agency",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}