Iranian regime survival holds as long odds stay at 9%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072905",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QNQ4VPVP80",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 9% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, despite an active ballistic missile exchange with U.S. forces.",
    "CENTCOM confirmed Iran fired on U.S. positions; the low 9% probability suggests markets do not view the current escalation as regime-threatening.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract prices a 24% chance the U.S. invades Iran before 2027, a higher bar that markets still treat as unlikely.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the distinction between regime survival and U.S. invasion is key, as air-intercept operations alone are unlikely to trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/all-iranian-ballistic-missiles-intercepted-after-attempted-attack-on-us-forces-in-middle-east-centcom/4012019",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran's IRGC fired multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in the Middle East in what CENTCOM described as an attempted surprise attack; all missiles were intercepted.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/all-iranian-ballistic-missiles-intercepted-after-attempted-attack-on-us-forces-in-middle-east-centcom/4012019"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket covers both regime collapse at 9% and U.S. invasion at 24%, with the spread reflecting market skepticism that current strikes escalate to either outcome."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: All Iranian ballistic missiles intercepted after attempted attack on U",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/all-iranian-ballistic-missiles-intercepted-after-attempted-attack-on-us-forces-in-middle-east-centcom/4012019",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}