Kalshi inflation surge 2026: 98%; CPI at 3.9%
record: CMSIG20260603BD26 | category: vs-benchmark-drift | target: CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04 | published: 2026-06-03
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi prices 98% probability of an inflation surge in 2026.
- CPI year-over-year (FRED) currently at 3.9%.
- Near-certainty pricing with CPI already close to typical 'surge' thresholds.
- Resolves against CPI benchmark for 2026.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] benchmark_divergence
evaluation
The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.
- judge_engine
llm_judge_cm_signal_v1- judge_verdict
- wire_eligible
- judge_confidence
- 0.78 / 1.00
- prompt_template
benchmark_drift_v1github · auditable
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxlcpimaxyoy-27/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset + ClaimReview) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/inflation-surge-in-2026-vs-bench/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/inflation-surge-in-2026-vs-bench.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("inflation-surge-in-2026-vs-bench") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG20260603BD26",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00",
"detection": "benchmark_drift",
"category_tag": "VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
"target_event_slug": "kxlcpimaxyoy-27",
"event_question": "CPI year-over-year maximum, February 2027",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi prices 98% probability of an inflation surge in 2026.",
"CPI year-over-year (FRED) currently at 3.9%.",
"Near-certainty pricing with CPI already close to typical 'surge' thresholds.",
"Resolves against CPI benchmark for 2026."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "benchmark_divergence",
"provenance": "PM price direct from kalshi API; benchmark CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED) = 3.9%",
"field_provenance": {
"pm_price": {
"tier": "direct",
"method": "kalshi_api"
},
"benchmark_value": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED)",
"source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00"
}
}
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
"judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
"judge_confidence": 0.78,
"prompt_template": "benchmark_drift_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxlcpimaxyoy-27/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED): 3.9%",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "benchmark_api",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1