Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambia presidential election? [ resolves 2026-08-14 (22D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakainde Hichilema | 2026-08-14 | 90.0% | $2.4K | $47K | C | 0x156d09…91f9 | ||
| Brian Mundubile | 2026-08-14 | 11.0% | $7.2K | $47K | C | 0x95a203…c807 | ||
| Fred M'membe | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $2.2K | $7.8K | C | 0x02e9b1…3809 | ||
| Person A | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x83b943…ba13 | ||
| Person B | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x90f274…1878 | ||
| Person C | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb5f794…1fe4 | ||
| Person D | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc2f7cc…a67e | ||
| Person E | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1bb4cb…6333 | ||
| Person F | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd99ac5…c618 | ||
| Person G | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5da962…ea3d | ||
| Person H | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x214b5c…157c | ||
| Person I | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8197c2…3125 | ||
| Person J | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdfec40…92d1 | ||
| Person K | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xacb159…53bf | ||
| Person L | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbfa70a…320c | ||
| Person M | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe6907e…3738 | ||
| Person N | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8c7fc2…4b97 | ||
| Person O | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x82756f…93a3 | ||
| Person P | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa2d500…d896 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbf52e8…d047 | ||
| Person R | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x02cc2e…7858 | ||
| Person S | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd9799b…e078 | ||
| Person T | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe06216…4573 | ||
| Person U | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbea577…d3d8 | ||
| Person V | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x378bb5…b30e | ||
| Person W | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xea8af0…d332 | ||
| Person X | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x80714e…773b | ||
| Person Y | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x71822b…e633 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4b3921…5088 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7d91f7…3257 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/zambia-presidential-election-winner-20260604205247322/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/zambia-presidential-election-winner-20260604205247322 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("zambia-presidential-election-winner-20260604205247322") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
"slug": "zambia-presidential-election-winner-20260604205247322",
"question": "Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambia presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"zambia",
"2026",
"executive-election",
"africa"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 102377,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Electoral Commission of Zambia",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}