Will the turnout in the first round of the Zambia Presidential Election exceed 50%? [ resolved 2026-08-14 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 50% and 60% | 2026-08-14 | 100.0% | $197 | $3.9K | B | 0x990819…ecb3 | ||
| ≤ 50% | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | $4 | $3.5K | B | 0xfd96c6…0262 | ||
| Between 60% and 70% | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | $422 | $6.0K | B | 0x045557…0a08 | ||
| Between 70% and 80% | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | $5 | $1.3K | B | 0x7fb404…9532 | ||
| ≥ 80% | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | $2.8K | B | 0x4b9e03…c6c2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections is currently scheduled to be held on August 13, 2026, with a potential second round within 37 days thereafter.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of registered voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Zambian government, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (https://www.elections.org.zm/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
elections.org.zm venue-listed Zambian government from rules text Electoral Commission of Zambia committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-04 | 0% |
| YES | Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-04 | 100% |
| NO | Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/zambia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-20260604214258491/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/zambia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-20260604214258491 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("zambia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-20260604214258491") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3YGH3VHJ34",
"slug": "zambia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-20260604214258491",
"question": "Will the turnout in the first round of the Zambia Presidential Election exceed 50%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"zambia",
"voter-turnout",
"2026",
"africa"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17508,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 69,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.elections.org.zm/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Electoral Commission of Zambia",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "elections.org.zm",
"url": "https://www.elections.org.zm/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Zambian government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Electoral Commission of Zambia",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}