Will xAI's Grok achieve a score on the FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30? [ resolved 2026-02-28 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://epoch.ai/frontiermath resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will any xAI Grok model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| YES | Will any xAI Grok model score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Exam? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 100% |
| YES | Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/xai-grok-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/xai-grok-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("xai-grok-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-19H9FYLFS1",
"slug": "xai-grok-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30",
"question": "Will xAI's Grok achieve a score on the FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"grok",
"frontier-math",
"benchmark-performance",
"xai"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21288,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://epoch.ai/frontiermath",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "epoch.ai",
"url": "https://epoch.ai/frontiermath",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "EpochAI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}