Will the Wisconsin gubernatorial election be won by the incumbent or a challenger? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 83.0% | $24K | $45K | A | 0xfbd0a6…1b71 | ||
| The Republicans | — | 17.0% | $4.9K | $71K | A | 0xd66ead…fda7 | ||
| Option A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x44a046…d03c | ||
| Option B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf4c9e0…f8f9 | ||
| Option C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4d44fb…b78b | ||
| Option D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7b05c5…91b4 | ||
| Option E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb08ed7…5077 | ||
| Option F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb6010b…7e6a | ||
| Option G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd192b7…cac5 | ||
| Option H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x37de01…da23 | ||
| Option I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd01730…5800 | ||
| Option J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf99681…f562 | ||
| Other | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf77b3d…9369 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Democrats favored to hold Wisconsin governor at 81% 81% · $69K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democratic retention of Wisconsin's governorship at 81%, a strong lean, not a lock.
- 24h volume of $69K is 38% of all-time, suggesting renewed attention rather than an inaugural discovery of this contract.
- Fresh volume may track a new poll, candidate development, or shifting national environment for 2026 midterm governors.
- Wisconsin is a key swing-state bellwether; governor race outcomes carry downstream implications for 2028 electoral infrastructure.
- Republicans stay long shots in Wisconsin governor race at 23% 23% · $72K 24h
- 23% price tags Republicans as clear underdogs, with the market heavily favoring a Democratic hold of the Wisconsin governorship.
- 44% of all-time Polymarket volume landed in the last 24 hours, the single largest daily share in this contract's life.
- Concentrated volume against a lopsided price suggests traders are either testing the floor or hedging event-driven tail risk.
- Contract resolves on the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/wisconsin-governor-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/wisconsin-governor-winner-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("wisconsin-governor-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QYSXP23XP8",
"slug": "wisconsin-governor-winner-2026",
"question": "Will the Wisconsin gubernatorial election be won by the incumbent or a challenger?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-governors",
"wisconsin",
"2026-election",
"partisan-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 116896,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}