Will a Democrat win the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary? [ resolves 2026-08-11 (19D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca Hong | 2026-08-11 | 78.4% | $136 | $42K | C | 0x00925a…51de | ||
| David Crowley | 2026-08-11 | 9.3% | $128 | $25K | C | 0xf23716…c1f7 | ||
| Mandela Barnes | 2026-08-11 | 8.1% | $2.5K | $40K | C | 0x0f1843…7d94 | ||
| Joel Brennan | 2026-08-11 | 1.3% | $754 | $11K | C | 0xdda5ff…4e7b | ||
| Kelda Roys | 2026-08-11 | 0.5% | $370 | $12K | C | 0x80c407…d2b2 | ||
| Missy Hughes | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $3.5K | C | 0xe77345…5586 | ||
| Brett Hulsey | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $3.7K | C | 0x759155…1dc2 | ||
| Sara Rodriguez | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | $37 | $48K | C | 0x6bb7b4…4925 | ||
| Zachary Roper | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $3.4K | C | 0xaceb04…c7dc | ||
| Tim Jacobson | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $3.3K | C | 0x5df504…f5b8 | ||
| Melissa Agard | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $4.1K | C | 0x85c557…cbbd | ||
| Chris Larson | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $12K | C | 0xeb823d…15f0 | ||
| Tom Nelson | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $3.8K | C | 0xd07d74…ff11 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6a21de…d785 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xeba6ae…ba15 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x01cd24…113a | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfe1035…7dfb | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3cbd23…a683 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x659172…9784 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5353c4…77ba | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4aeaa8…0b0b | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd55401…cd5d | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x190f16…cca8 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a15fd…4712 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x48c305…8cdb | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe7d20d…319a | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x086565…bc80 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x36ed06…3d3f | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb3d8ea…2003 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- Wisconsin Democratic Party from rules text · editorial
- credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Rodriguez Wisconsin primary bid draws skeptical capital at 17% 17% · $11K 24h
- 17% price tags Sara Rodriguez as a clear underdog in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic governor primary.
- $11,430 in 24h represents 28% of all-time volume, indicating a sharp burst of fresh market attention.
- Sudden attention on a low-probability candidate often precedes a news catalyst, endorsement, poll, or entry.
- Resolution tied to Wisconsin Democratic primary election date; field and frontrunner dynamics still fluid.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CDL1PJHC16",
"slug": "wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Democrat win the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"wisconsin",
"democratic-primary",
"us-governor"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 211648,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Wisconsin Democratic Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}