Venezuelan crude oil production, 2026 [ resolves 2027-02-28 (270D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 1,000,000 | 2027-02-28 | 99.9% | — | $39K | B | 0x49c778…6431 | ||
| ≥ 1,100,000 | 2027-02-28 | 97.9% | — | $15K | B | 0x100207…8113 | ||
| ≥ 1,200,000 | 2027-02-28 | 83.0% | — | $9.3K | B | 0x0ade70…0652 | ||
| ≥ 1,300,000 | 2027-02-28 | 65.0% | — | $6.9K | B | 0x59bb2c…b902 | ||
| ≥ 1,400,000 | 2027-02-28 | 30.0% | — | $17K | B | 0x50b1af…30d1 | ||
| ≥ 1,500,000 | 2027-02-28 | 28.0% | — | $8.0K | B | 0xf0904a…825c | ||
| ≥ 1,700,000 | 2027-02-28 | 2.3% | — | $3.9K | B | 0x28f262…d20a | ||
| ≥ 2,000,000 | 2027-02-28 | 3.4% | — | $13K | B | 0x294517…f834 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | opec.org | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WL6DTZN086",
"slug": "will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026",
"question": "Venezuelan crude oil production, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"venezuela",
"crude-oil",
"energy-production",
"2027",
"economics",
"commodities"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 111972,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "opec.org",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}