Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2026-10 ]

Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

polymarket 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026	—	82.0%	$458	$311K	C	`0xafefe6…68ec`
Will Variational launch a token in 2025	2026-01-01	0.1%	—	$49K	C	`0xa3f9a7…0efb`
Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026	2026-10-01	21.0%	$5	$1.1K	C	`0x9ddae4…e215`
Will Variational launch a token by June 30, 2026	2026-10-01	13.0%	—	$2.1K	C	`0x1d3b5a…c81d`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 4 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://x.com/variational_io

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DS4GXJ3J7",
  "slug": "will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "variational",
    "cryptocurrency-projects",
    "tokenomics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 362605,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 50,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://x.com/variational_io",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →