Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2027-01 ]

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?

polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 2 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
≥ 0.5%	2026-01-01	100.0%		—	$81K		B	`0xf6d34e…3f3c`
≥ 0.5%	2027-01-01	46.0%		—	$101K		B	`0x9397eb…454c`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	Coingecko	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 2 markets · share this text

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data. The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT. This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZF44ZSYK3",
  "slug": "will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "stablecoin",
    "market-cap-comparison",
    "usdc-vs-usdt",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 2,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 182576,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 77,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Coingecko",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →