Will the US annex any territory in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Will US annex any territory in 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US annex any territory in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 3.3% | $110 | $154K | C | 0x7b0ed3…62e4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the US government from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- US annexation in 2026 sits in deep tail territory at 7% 7% · $45K 24h
- 7% probability, market treats annexation as a remote but non-trivial geopolitical tail risk.
- $45K in 24h is 30% of all-time volume, signaling renewed institutional attention mid-year.
- Greenland, Panama Canal, and Canada scenarios likely driving residual long interest.
- Full-year 2026 resolution window means risk stays open despite low headline probability.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-us-annex-any-territory-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-us-annex-any-territory-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-us-annex-any-territory-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9XS608W3B5",
"slug": "will-us-annex-any-territory-in-2026",
"question": "Will the US annex any territory in 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-foreign-policy",
"territorial-expansion",
"2026",
"trump-administration"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 153769,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the US government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}