Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | — | $61K | C | 0x9c414c…d667 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives from rules text a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement from rules text
recent wire items
- Trump endorsing Vance for president before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket puts only 4% on Trump endorsing JD Vance for president before 2027, treating the outcome as a clear long shot.
- Vance's high-profile Dallas convention role generated successor speculation, but the market is not pricing a Trump endorsement as remotely likely in this window.
- The Polymarket contract on Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 sits at 6%, so the low Vance endorsement odds are consistent with a market that expects Trump to remain in office and retain optionality.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; early endorsement would require a Trump public statement explicitly backing Vance for the presidency before calendar year-end.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-trump-endorse-jd-vance-for-president-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-trump-endorse-jd-vance-for-president-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-trump-endorse-jd-vance-for-president-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VYGG3P41R5",
"slug": "will-trump-endorse-jd-vance-for-president-before-2027",
"question": "Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"elections",
"politics",
"2026",
"endorsements",
"republican-primary"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 61203,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}