Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $2.9K | $121K | C | 0x0c7245…64c0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- UN Security Council endorsing a US-Iran deal by December stays near long-shot Polymarket 9%
- The Polymarket contract puts 9% odds on the UN Security Council passing a resolution endorsing a final US-Iran deal by December 2026.
- Iran's flat rejection of the Qatari plan is directionally consistent with this long-shot pricing, the market had already discounted a rapid resolution.
- The Strait of Hormuz Polymarket contract at 12% (CM-EVT-LCPV825X09) sits only marginally above this, indicating the market sees both a deal and reopening as near-equivalent long shots.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; a UNSC endorsement requires not just a deal but a formal Security Council vote, a higher bar than a bilateral ceasefire.
- UN Security Council endorsing a US-Iran deal stays a long shot Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket places 9% on the UN Security Council passing a resolution endorsing a final US-Iran deal by December, resolving via uma_oracle.
- Iran's rejection of the Qatari proposal as unacceptable is consistent with the Polymarket contract's deep discount; the market is not pricing a diplomatic breakthrough.
- Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities add a further military escalation layer that the 9% pricing appears to incorporate as a complicating factor.
- The Polymarket contract on Hormuz returning to normal by year-end at 12% (CM-EVT-LCPV825X09) trades slightly above the UN deal contract, implying the market sees a partial reopening as marginally more likely than a full formal settlement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-unsc-adopt-a-resolution-endorsing-the-final-us-iran-deal-by-date/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-unsc-adopt-a-resolution-endorsing-the-final-us-iran-deal-by-date |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-unsc-adopt-a-resolution-endorsing-the-final-us-iran-deal-by-date") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1B57MJ14Q5",
"slug": "will-the-unsc-adopt-a-resolution-endorsing-the-final-us-iran-deal-by-date",
"question": "Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"diplomacy",
"nuclear-deal",
"unsc-resolution",
"us-iran-relations",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 120963,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 41,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}