Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2027-06 ]
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28, 2026 | 2026-03-01 | 0.6% | — | $15K | A | 0x5aeab0…4540 | ||
| March 31, 2026 | 2026-04-01 | 0.2% | — | $27K | A | 0x740958…ad89 | ||
| July 15, 2026 | 2026-07-16 | 0.1% | — | $1.56M | A | 0xeee4ee…2b48 | ||
| December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $167 | $637K | A | 0xa22201…4986 | ||
| September 30, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $1.4K | $829K | A | 0xbc0079…7bb0 | ||
| June 30, 2027 | 2027-06-30 | 42.0% | — | $24K | A | 0x559b82…4440 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · single authority
- official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Buyers back Alito retirement odds at 35% 35% · $15K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Samuel Alito retirement announcement by Jun 30, 2027 at 35%, a meaningful minority probability.
- 39% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, a notable single-session share for a slow-moving SCOTUS contract.
- Senate dynamics, Trump judicial agenda, or Alito public statements likely refreshed trader interest.
- Resolution deadline is Jun 30, 2027; odds imply roughly one-in-three chance of an announcement inside a year.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
"slug": "will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by",
"question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by the end of 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"supreme-court",
"us-judicial",
"retirement",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3091709,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}