Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by March 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 3 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026	2026-12-31	31.0%	$2	$19K	C	`0xa22201…4986`
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by February 28, 2026	2026-12-31	0.6%	—	$15K	C	`0x5aeab0…4540`
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by March 31, 2026	2026-12-31	0.2%	—	$27K	C	`0x740958…ad89`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 3 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
  "slug": "will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by",
  "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by March 31, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-supreme-court",
    "judicial-retirement",
    "alito",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 3,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 61443,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 70,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "none"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →