Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png
Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png
Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 sources (10) · stated precedence rule
storymaps.arcgis.com venue-listed polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed maps.app.goo.gl venue-listed deepstatemap.live venue-listed upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed ISW map from rules text ISW Ukraine map committed source DeepStateMap from rules text
recent wire items
- Traders back Russia taking Rai-Oleksandrivka by year-end 55% · $12K 24h
- Market prices a 55% chance Russia captures the town by Dec 31, a lean-positive read on near-term Russian advance.
- 24h volume of $12,275 equals 33% of all-time handle, outsized single-session deployment signals fresh conviction.
- Renewed attention likely tracks battlefield reporting or Ukrainian line movements drawing capital to retest the majority threshold.
- Resolves Dec 31; any confirmed capture or credible front-line shift before year-end is the key trigger.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-V5Z6YFM7W2",
"slug": "will-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-june-30",
"question": "Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"russia-ukraine",
"military-territorial-control",
"2026-resolution",
"eastern-ukraine"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 139668,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 42,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
"url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
"url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "deepstatemap.live",
"url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISW map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ISW Ukraine map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "DeepStateMap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}