Will Russia capture Lyman by...? [ resolves 2025-12 – 2026-09 ]
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 2025-12-01 | 100.0% | — | $142K | C | 0x926418…1697 | ||
| December 31, 2026 | 2025-12-31 | 9.0% | $239 | $394K | C | 0xf69195…97b7 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $765K | C | 0x69b009…02e0 | ||
| January 31, 2026 | 2026-02-01 | 0.1% | — | $72K | C | 0x8b669a…817d | ||
| February 28, 2026 | 2026-03-01 | 0.1% | — | $86K | C | 0x419c45…8ab0 | ||
| March 31, 2026 | 2026-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $696K | C | 0x309ae7…3635 | ||
| April 30, 2026 | 2026-05-01 | 2.5% | — | $199K | C | 0xa54188…1448 | ||
| May 31, 2026 | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $105K | C | 0x976adf…4ddc | ||
| June 30, 2026 | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $355K | C | 0x2d0252…4f9f | ||
| September 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | 1.9% | $332 | $42K | C | 0x25e4d8…112a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 sources (10) · stated precedence rule
storymaps.arcgis.com venue-listed polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed maps.app.goo.gl venue-listed deepstatemap.live venue-listed upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed ISW map from rules text ISW Ukraine map committed source DeepStateMap from rules text
recent wire items
- Odds on Russia taking Lyman by September 30 stay near zero at 6% 6% · $28K 24h
- Market prices Russia capturing Lyman by September 30, 2026 at just 6%, deep discount.
- $28K in 24h, 39% of all-time volume, shows a sharp revival of interest in this front-line contract.
- Volume likely reflects new battlefield reporting or shifting front-line assessments near Lyman.
- Resolves YES only if Russian forces control Lyman before October 1, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GM6XLL63G6",
"slug": "will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025",
"question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"russia-ukraine",
"military-conflict",
"territorial-control",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2855309,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 42,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
"url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
"url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "deepstatemap.live",
"url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISW map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ISW Ukraine map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "DeepStateMap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}