Will Lula announce the nomination of a Supreme Court minister by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.gov.br/planalto sources (3) · single authority
- gov.br source of record venue-listed
- Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto) from rules text · editorial
- Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-lula-announce-nomination-of-a-supreme-court-minister-byptptpt-20260602182854659/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-lula-announce-nomination-of-a-supreme-court-minister-byptptpt-20260602182854659 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-lula-announce-nomination-of-a-supreme-court-minister-byptptpt-20260602182854659") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J0M5X9VWM9",
"slug": "will-lula-announce-nomination-of-a-supreme-court-minister-byptptpt-20260602182854659",
"question": "Will Lula announce the nomination of a Supreme Court minister by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil",
"lula",
"supreme-court",
"judicial-appointments",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20538,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.gov.br/planalto",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "gov.br",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "gov.br",
"url": "https://www.gov.br/planalto",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}