Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $508 | $80K | C | 0x794fbb…cfe0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from the Israeli government from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket prices West Bank annexation before 2027 at just 4%, treating the official Israeli statement as noise rather than a credible near-term signal.
- The UAE rebuke and the absence of U.S. endorsement are consistent with the market discounting the Smotrich statement as political posturing.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-4KV364R788 on Israel-Saudi normalization sits at 2%, suggesting the broader regional diplomatic environment remains hostile to major Israeli territorial moves.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the compressed horizon to end-2026 is the binding constraint alongside international political opposition.
- Israeli West Bank annexation before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- The Polymarket contract puts only 4% odds on Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027.
- Smotrich's annexation call drew immediate pushback from the UAE, a normalization partner, consistent with the market's heavy discount on near-term action.
- The Polymarket contract on Israel-Saudi normalization before 2027 sits at 6%, suggesting the market sees any major annexation move as even more likely to torpedo regional diplomacy.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; partial administrative steps versus formal annexation would be the key settlement distinction.
- Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- The Polymarket contract on Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027 is priced at 4%, treating Smotrich's call as a political statement rather than a policy signal.
- The UAE rebuke and broader Arab normalization stakes give the market reason to discount the annexation rhetoric; the low odds reflect diplomatic constraints more than legal ones.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizing relations before 2027 is at 6%, suggesting markets see Gulf relationships as fragile but not broken.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the question likely requires a formal government annexation action, not a ministerial statement, to settle Yes.
- Israel annexing West Bank before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket contract on Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027 sits at 4%, putting long odds on formal annexation this year.
- Smotrich's public annexation call drew immediate UAE rebuke, but prediction markets show the rhetoric is not shifting the probability of actual annexation.
- UAE, which normalized ties with Israel in 2020, signaling regional cost of annexation; markets appear to price diplomatic friction as a cap on action.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; contract requires formal annexation action, not ministerial statements, to resolve yes.
- Israel annexing West Bank before 2027 stays near long-shot odds Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket prices Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027 at just 4%, keeping formal annexation a heavy long shot.
- The military construction in occupied Syrian territory is an escalation, but the market distinguishes this from formal annexation of the West Bank; prices are consistent with that distinction.
- Trading volume on this contract is up 4,424% day over day, a large surge suggesting the Syrian military line news is drawing fresh attention to broader Israeli territorial questions.
- Resolution via Polymarket's uma_oracle; the contract requires formal annexation of West Bank territory, a legally distinct act from military positioning in Syria.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FZLNPNYSY4",
"slug": "will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027",
"question": "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-palestine",
"territorial-dispute",
"middle-east",
"2026",
"international-law"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 79870,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Israeli government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}