Will Hamas agree to disarm by the end of this year? [ resolves 2025-12 – 2026-12 ]
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 2025-12-01 | 100.0% | — | $173K | C | 0xe253db…5423 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $1.14M | C | 0x11db07…3c40 | ||
| February 28 | 2026-03-01 | 1.1% | — | $13K | C | 0xc00af5…d046 | ||
| March 31 | 2026-04-01 | 0.2% | — | $275K | C | 0x48d65c…345b | ||
| June 30 | 2026-07-03 | 0.2% | — | $486K | C | 0x2cd4df…e6b7 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $92 | $13K | C | 0x1e5204…3bf4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- official statements from Hamas leadership from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Traders pile into Hamas disarmament by Dec 31 at 67% 67% · $563K 24h
- Market prices 67% odds Hamas agrees to disarm by December 31, a majority-confidence read on a deal.
- 24h volume of $563K equals 59% of all-time flow, signaling a decisive single-session conviction shift.
- Surge likely tracks fresh ceasefire or hostage-deal framework reporting demanding a disarmament clause.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; any breakdown in talks would reprice sharply lower.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
"slug": "will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by the end of this year?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"armed-groups",
"disarmament",
"israel-palestine",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2100664,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official statements from Hamas leadership",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}