CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2027-01 ]

Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026?

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
June 30, 2026-07-01 1.2%
$11K
A 0x11de17…ed5a
July 31, 2026-08-01 0.0%
$3.4K $14K
A 0x0fa7b9…618e
August 31, 2026-09-01 2.4%
$1.9K $9.8K
A 0x784aad…9082
September 30, 2026-10-01 13.0%
$1.5K $4.3K
A 0xd5fb8a…18bb
October 31, 2026-11-01 11.0%
$198 $1.4K
A 0x2f71e3…1099
November 30, 2026-12-01 12.0%
$533 $2.9K
A 0xf93d68…0315
December 31, 2027-01-01 14.0%
$331 $9.3K
A 0xf52464…f51a
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided link Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 7 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if https://x.com/elonmusk posts the listed term by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in main feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of the listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: H@perl1quid, for "Hyperliquid") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: Hyperliquidd or Hyperliqid, for "Hyperliquid"), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the listed term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). Posts published from https://x.com/elonmusk during a period in which the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by Elon Musk or X, do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: https://x.com/elonmusk Please note, only the https://x.com/elonmusk verified X account counts for this market. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
platform source field polymarket.descriptionhttps://x.com/elonmusk
sources (3) · single authority
  • x.com source of record venue-listed
  • https://x.com/elonmusk from rules text · editorial
  • Elon Musk's verified X account: https://x.com/elonmusk from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-elon-musk-tweet-about-hyperliquid-by/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-elon-musk-tweet-about-hyperliquid-by
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("will-elon-musk-tweet-about-hyperliquid-by")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5SRVV5L3N0",
  "slug": "will-elon-musk-tweet-about-hyperliquid-by",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk tweet \"Hyperliquid\" by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "elon-musk",
    "social-media",
    "hyperliquid",
    "2026",
    "twitter-sentiment"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 7,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 52228,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 93,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "x.com",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "x.com",
      "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "Elon Musk's verified X account: https://x.com/elonmusk",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →