Will Claude go down on __ days in June? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://status.claude.com/uptime/ sources (3) · single authority
- status.claude.com venue-listed
- https://status.claude.com/uptime/ source of record from rules text · editorial
- Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 100% |
| NO | Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-june/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-june |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-june") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YX5BXJNX37",
"slug": "will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-june",
"question": "Will Claude go down on __ days in June?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"tech",
"ai",
"claude",
"service-uptime",
"incident-frequency"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12673,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 69,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "status.claude.com",
"url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}