Will Base launch a token by 2027? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2028-01 ]
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 2025 | 2026-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $4.89M | C | 0x03de82…1e8b | ||
| By June 30, 2026 | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.75M | C | 0x9873d0…36c1 | ||
| By September 30, 2026 | 2026-10-01 | 2.2% | $2.1K | $98K | C | 0x06cd46…9f55 | ||
| By June 30, 2027 | 2027-07-01 | 42.0% | — | $9.7K | C | 0x8f437e…b8a3 | ||
| By December 31, 2027 | 2028-01-01 | 68.0% | $51 | $30K | C | 0xc48e17…8ed4 | ||
| By December 31, 2026 | — | 13.0% | $349 | $647K | C | 0x1a659a…a302 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.
The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- Base from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-base-launch-a-token-in-2025-341/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-base-launch-a-token-in-2025-341 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-base-launch-a-token-in-2025-341") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PZT6DFNS45",
"slug": "will-base-launch-a-token-in-2025-341",
"question": "Will Base launch a token by 2027?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"base-blockchain",
"token-launch",
"layer-2-ecosystem",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7428733,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Base",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}