Will a Chinese company have a top AI model by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The best AI model | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $3 | $60K | C | 0xca52ff…1932 | ||
| One of the top 3 AI models | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | $1.3K | $9.0K | C | 0xf4aff0…8717 | ||
| One of the top 5 AI models | 2026-12-31 | 49.0% | $4.2K | $17K | C | 0x2c1855…705d | ||
| One of the top 10 AI models | 2026-12-31 | 98.1% | — | $13K | C | 0x22637d…9d89 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top three positions under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
"slug": "will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31",
"question": "Will a Chinese company have a top AI model by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-models",
"chinese-tech",
"ai-rankings",
"2026",
"global-competition"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 99337,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://arena.ai/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "arena.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "arena.ai",
"url": "https://arena.ai/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "arena.ai",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}