Will the KRG declare independence from Iraq by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 7.2% | $58K | $198K | C | 0x19e4c1…991d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- KRG independence by year-end stays a long shot at 8% 8% · $70K 24h
- Polymarket prices Kurdish Regional Government independence from Iraq at 8%, a tail risk, not a base case.
- $70K in 24h represents 26% of all-time volume, the second-largest single-day draw on this contract.
- Fresh attention at 8% suggests geopolitical developments, regional diplomacy, Baghdad tensions, or U.S. posture, are prompting reassessment.
- Contract resolves if KRG formally declares independence before December 31, 2026.
- KRG independence by year-end stays a long shot at 6% 6% · $57K 24h
- Polymarket prices Kurdish Regional Government independence at just 6%, the market assigns this a remote but non-trivial probability.
- 24h volume of $56.6K is 29% of the $196K all-time total, a meaningful single-day share for a geopolitical tail risk.
- Fresh attention likely tied to regional security developments or diplomatic signaling in Iraq in mid-2026.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; any formal KRG independence declaration would trigger YES.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-trump-talk-to/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-trump-talk-to |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-trump-talk-to") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SPXZBC4MN7",
"slug": "who-will-trump-talk-to",
"question": "Will the KRG declare independence from Iraq by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"kurdistan",
"independence",
"sovereignty-recognition",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 197608,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}