Will Trump publicly insult someone by August 31? [ resolved 2026-08-31 ]
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by August 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 27 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 2026-07-31 | 99.8% | — | $2.7K | C | 0x48c201…e9ab | ||
| Barack Obama | 2026-08-01 | 99.1% | — | $2.5K | C | 0x6f817b…82e5 | ||
| Tucker Carlson | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $257 | $1.5K | C | 0x915022…0bb2 | ||
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $26 | $700 | C | 0x8a5cc7…e88e | ||
| Nicolás Maduro | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $814 | $1.1K | C | 0xbfa4ba…4a80 | ||
| Kaitlan Collins | 2026-08-31 | 31.0% | $20 | $887 | C | 0xa49b83…85ac | ||
| Zohran Mamdani | 2026-08-31 | 5.0% | — | $65 | C | 0x186935…f935 | ||
| Jerome Powell | 2026-08-31 | 2.0% | $56 | $96 | C | 0x136494…4c26 | ||
| Megyn Kelly | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $329 | $351 | C | 0x732c49…9320 | ||
| Candace Owens | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $3.2K | $5.1K | C | 0x20aba2…18bb | ||
| Alex Jones | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $3.0K | C | 0xa884ae…f1e9 | ||
| Pope Leo XIV | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $83 | $2.3K | C | 0xef4f61…3997 | ||
| Vladimir Putin | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $117 | $798 | C | 0x18c0e3…0cb2 | ||
| Pam Bondi | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $48 | $69 | C | 0x1750e0…2e87 | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $13 | $142 | C | 0x2d0b94…0ed6 | ||
| J.D. Vance | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $195 | $751 | C | 0xf08e84…4298 | ||
| Melania Trump | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $3.0K | C | 0xd41cb7…1dd2 | ||
| Xi Jinping | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $42 | $896 | C | 0x5baac6…6d95 | ||
| Andy Burnham | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.1K | C | 0xd7ef44…20b3 | ||
| Viktor Orbán | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbba7c6…dfa4 | ||
| Elon Musk | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $10 | $1.1K | C | 0x439491…39f8 | ||
| Jimmy Kimmel | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $181 | C | 0xdc2803…ed7b | ||
| Emmanuel Macron | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $839 | C | 0x9b91d6…19ed | ||
| Friedrich Merz | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $718 | C | 0x81af94…b2fc | ||
| Norah O'Donnell | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.1K | C | 0x36ccca…1289 | ||
| Mohammed bin Salman | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | 0x0ea152…a935 | ||
| Kevin Warsh | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $15 | C | 0x4e09bc…7e5b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
public statements made by Donald Trump from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Norah O'Donnell by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Andy Burnham by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| YES | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-08-22 | 100% |
| YES | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-08-22 | 100% |
| YES | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-08-06 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (22 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-august-31-20260730161613099/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-august-31-20260730161613099 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-august-31-20260730161613099") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ6R4D04Z1",
"slug": "who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-august-31-20260730161613099",
"question": "Will Trump publicly insult someone by August 31?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"public-statements",
"personality-based",
"2026",
"social-behavior"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 27,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 30934,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "public statements made by Donald Trump",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}