Who will Trump pardon before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 28 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Stone | 2026-12-31 | 21.0% | — | $2.7K | C | 0xdbb048…b5a9 | ||
| Donald Brodie | 2026-12-31 | 21.0% | — | $774 | C | 0x836ddf…7be8 | ||
| Stefan Brodie | 2026-12-31 | 19.0% | — | $2.3K | C | 0xa50373…66b1 | ||
| Ryan Salame | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | — | $29K | C | 0xbde10f…e32c | ||
| Steve Bannon | 2026-12-31 | 13.2% | — | $7.8K | C | 0x4a869d…9ad2 | ||
| Keonne Rodriguez | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | — | $15K | C | 0x54701b…e579 | ||
| Daniel Penny | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | — | $447 | C | 0x25a847…69ed | ||
| Matt Gaetz | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $10 | $3.4K | C | 0xfcbc8e…9cd4 | ||
| Eric Adams | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $53 | $709 | C | 0x30efbe…21b9 | ||
| Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $5 | $5.4K | C | 0xbb8c9a…fc96 | ||
| Martin Shkreli | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $30K | C | 0xe24374…64d0 | ||
| Andrew Tate | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $202 | C | 0x2a6bda…ce06 | ||
| Bob Menendez | 2026-12-31 | 7.8% | — | $195 | C | 0x0146bc…f831 | ||
| Julian Assange | 2026-12-31 | 6.1% | — | $2.3K | C | 0x507746…2978 | ||
| Roger Ver | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $1.1K | C | 0xb5052b…8d48 | ||
| Diddy | 2026-12-31 | 5.2% | $158 | $25K | C | 0xe16cd1…23e4 | ||
| Himself | 2026-12-31 | 4.9% | $105 | $12K | C | 0x6bc658…277b | ||
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 2026-12-31 | 4.8% | $485 | $127K | C | 0x2c41ac…c35f | ||
| Edward Snowden | 2026-12-31 | 4.2% | $24 | $3.0K | C | 0x07d488…f7cf | ||
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | — | $21K | C | 0xef145c…2dbf | ||
| Derek Chauvin | 2026-12-31 | 3.6% | $28 | $19K | C | 0x354d0b…b91c | ||
| Nicolas Maduro | 2026-12-31 | 3.6% | — | $9.4K | C | 0x1b53ad…681a | ||
| Antoine Massey | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $2.0K | C | 0xa351f0…ec93 | ||
| Elizabeth Holmes | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | — | $3.4K | C | 0xd6587c…6deb | ||
| Do Kwon | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $23K | C | 0xe3756f…f76a | ||
| Young Thug | 2026-12-31 | 1.5% | — | $4.3K | C | 0xaf3f06…fec7 | ||
| Hunter Biden | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | — | $5.5K | C | 0xcd4a8e…dabb | ||
| Elon Musk | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $156 | $53K | C | 0x63c7e6…be8b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
official information from the US government from rules text
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
"slug": "who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027",
"question": "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"presidential-pardons",
"us-justice-system",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 28,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 408609,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the US government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}