Will Trump endorse a candidate for president by 2026? [ resolves 2025-09 – 2026-11 ]
Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsey Graham for SC-Sen by Nov 2 2026 | 2025-09-15 | 100.0% | — | $7.5K | C | 0xe35725…448f | ||
| Winsome Earle-Sears for VA-Gov by Nov 2 2025 | 2025-11-05 | 100.0% | — | $2.4K | C | 0x56cae7…5fcf | ||
| Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 | 2026-04-28 | 98.7% | — | $2.2K | C | 0x488bfc…e27a | ||
| Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 | 2026-05-02 | 99.9% | — | $24K | C | 0xa0a096…5d56 | ||
| Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 | 2026-05-19 | 99.9% | — | $65K | C | 0x6fb1af…a3b6 | ||
| Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 | 2026-06-13 | 98.9% | — | $1.6K | C | 0x07ab4a…6a7b | ||
| John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 | 2026-11-04 | 1.2% | $20 | $128K | C | 0x2aaffb…5f11 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.
If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-trump-endorse/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-trump-endorse |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-trump-endorse") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HRDT88BKQ0",
"slug": "who-will-trump-endorse",
"question": "Will Trump endorse a candidate for president by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"2026-election",
"endorsement",
"us-senate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 230949,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}