Will the United States and Iran sign a deal? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-08 ]
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 2026-06-15 | 99.9% | — | $102K | C | 0x3317da…3b35 | ||
| Donald Trump | 2026-06-15 | 99.9% | — | $130K | C | 0xf40089…687f | ||
| Ali Larijani | 2026-06-15 | 0.5% | — | $16K | C | 0xdc2e2b…2d85 | ||
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 2026-06-18 | 99.9% | — | $81K | C | 0x60be3b…19b4 | ||
| Shehbaz Sharif | 2026-06-18 | 99.5% | — | $115K | C | 0x976dc7…e560 | ||
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | 2026-08-01 | 1.4% | $2.3K | $211K | C | 0x923869…c828 | ||
| Marco Rubio | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $4.5K | $145K | C | 0x654ecf…040a | ||
| Pete Hegseth | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $14 | $63K | C | 0x5a012c…6546 | ||
| Steve Witkoff | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $1.1K | $191K | C | 0x42262c…ccf8 | ||
| Abbas Araghchi | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $485 | $164K | C | 0x555443…20bc | ||
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $239 | $115K | C | 0xe42fb9…2353 | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $156 | $86K | C | 0xfda39f…77cb | ||
| Mohammed bin Salman | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $39 | $175K | C | 0x529337…2dc2 | ||
| Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $34 | $36K | C | 0x68212b…d5a0 | ||
| Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | — | $126K | C | 0x09508d…d230 | ||
| Recep Tayyip Erdogan | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | — | $16K | C | 0x1dbde7…3701 | ||
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | — | $28K | C | 0x9de6ee…280f | ||
| Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | — | $143K | C | 0x1b0ef6…03fc | ||
| King Abdullah II | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | — | $30K | C | 0xf569ba…5b54 | ||
| Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | $53 | $12K | C | 0x66314e…2a6b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.
The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.
The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.
Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (14 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
"slug": "who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373",
"question": "Will the United States and Iran sign a deal?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"iran-nuclear-deal",
"us-foreign-policy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1984013,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}