Will a specific individual become Prime Minister of Israel following the next election? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
polymarket: [C] objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 28 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 34.0% | $9.0K | $924K | C | 0x7586a9…7b37 | ||
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 30.0% | $748 | $1.52M | C | 0x9ed0ec…e9b1 | ||
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 23.9% | $11K | $893K | C | 0xdbe93b…7ca4 | ||
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $25K | $909K | C | 0xadffc9…4ec0 | ||
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 1.3% | $72K | $718K | C | 0x4bf44e…1517 | ||
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | $477 | $739K | C | 0x45a791…590e | ||
| Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $547 | $580K | C | 0x93d07f…ceb2 | ||
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $1.2K | $999K | C | 0xfb2cb6…73d6 | ||
| Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $1.1K | $887K | C | 0xa653be…cb7d | ||
| Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $1.4K | $809K | C | 0x80a849…3b3b | ||
| Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $2.8K | $567K | C | 0x8cbdd0…18d0 | ||
| Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $6.4K | $438K | C | 0xf773a1…ad1e | ||
| Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $17K | $907K | C | 0xfcd53c…43f2 | ||
| Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $20K | $642K | C | 0x673db9…e4d3 | ||
| Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $247 | $496K | C | 0xd86255…92dd | ||
| Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $13K | $293K | C | 0xb25a93…86e9 | ||
| Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $7.8K | $866K | C | 0x641ee0…4bfa | ||
| Will Person G be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x63ae98…351f | ||
| Will Person I be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3c4504…c073 | ||
| Will Person K be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfdbf48…9750 | ||
| Will Person M be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x49fedc…5936 | ||
| Will Person O be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x001e8a…ab12 | ||
| Will Person F be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xea653d…0cba | ||
| Will Person H be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c4df2…c511 | ||
| Will Person J be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x059c79…69f5 | ||
| Will Person L be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcf8600…aa7a | ||
| Will Person N be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x36b883…47d8 | ||
| Will another person be the next Prime Minister of Israel | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xac1bbb…2be5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-05G08PPSM2",
"slug": "who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",
"question": "Will a specific individual become Prime Minister of Israel following the next election?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"israel-politics",
"prime-minister",
"elections-2026",
"geopolitics",
"leadership-succession",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 28,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13188148,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}