Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 28 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 2026-12-31 | 48.5% | $9.0K | $1.42M | C | 0xdbe93b…7ca4 | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2026-12-31 | 37.0% | $23K | $2.54M | C | 0x7586a9…7b37 | ||
| Naftali Bennett | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $1.2K | $2.80M | C | 0x9ed0ec…e9b1 | ||
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2026-12-31 | 2.8% | $2.2K | $2.09M | C | 0xadffc9…4ec0 | ||
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $888 | $1.38M | C | 0x4bf44e…1517 | ||
| Gideon Sa’ar | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $1.4K | $1.99M | C | 0xfb2cb6…73d6 | ||
| Yoaz Hendel | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $368 | $1.47M | C | 0x641ee0…4bfa | ||
| Israel Katz | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $591 | $563K | C | 0xb25a93…86e9 | ||
| Yair Lapid | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $1.9K | $1.34M | C | 0x45a791…590e | ||
| Benny Gantz | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $1.9K | $1.96M | C | 0xf773a1…ad1e | ||
| Yossi Cohen | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $1.6K | $1.77M | C | 0xa653be…cb7d | ||
| Yair Golan | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $4.8K | $2.10M | C | 0xfcd53c…43f2 | ||
| Yariv Levin | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $5.3K | $1.09M | C | 0x93d07f…ceb2 | ||
| Ayelet Shaked | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $765 | $1.43M | C | 0x80a849…3b3b | ||
| Nir Barkat | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $943 | $1.35M | C | 0xd86255…92dd | ||
| Amir Ohana | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $6.2K | $2.13M | C | 0x8cbdd0…18d0 | ||
| Gilad Erdan | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $2.1K | $280K | C | 0xea653d…0cba | ||
| Moshe Feiglin | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $11K | $1.34M | C | 0x673db9…e4d3 | ||
| Person G | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x63ae98…351f | ||
| Person H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c4df2…c511 | ||
| Person I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3c4504…c073 | ||
| Person J | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x059c79…69f5 | ||
| Person K | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfdbf48…9750 | ||
| Person L | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcf8600…aa7a | ||
| Person M | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x49fedc…5936 | ||
| Person N | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x36b883…47d8 | ||
| Person O | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x001e8a…ab12 | ||
| Another person | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xac1bbb…2be5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- official information from the Government of Israel from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Market stacks against Ohana ascending to Israeli PM 0% · $538K 24h
- Polymarket assigns zero probability to Amir Ohana becoming Israel's next Prime Minister.
- $538K in 24h is 33% of all-time volume, a significant single-session conviction flush.
- Flow likely driven by Netanyahu coalition developments rendering Ohana a non-viable successor path.
- Zero price with high volume suggests institutional desks are definitively closing the tail-risk position.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-05G08PPSM2",
"slug": "who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",
"question": "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"israel-politics",
"prime-minister",
"elections-2026",
"geopolitics",
"leadership-succession",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 28,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 29047249,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Government of Israel",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}