Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 28 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 2026-12-31 | 51.9% | $2.0K | $1.57M | C | 0xdbe93b…7ca4 | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2026-12-31 | 19.9% | $8.1K | $2.66M | C | 0x7586a9…7b37 | ||
| Naftali Bennett | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $1.3K | $2.86M | C | 0x9ed0ec…e9b1 | ||
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2026-12-31 | 5.3% | $4.4K | $2.26M | C | 0xadffc9…4ec0 | ||
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $5.3K | $1.47M | C | 0x4bf44e…1517 | ||
| Gideon Sa’ar | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $1.9K | $2.04M | C | 0xfb2cb6…73d6 | ||
| Benny Gantz | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $1.9K | $2.03M | C | 0xf773a1…ad1e | ||
| Yair Golan | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $1.3K | $2.24M | C | 0xfcd53c…43f2 | ||
| Yariv Levin | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $4.4K | $1.46M | C | 0x93d07f…ceb2 | ||
| Yoaz Hendel | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $819 | $1.51M | C | 0x641ee0…4bfa | ||
| Gilad Erdan | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $1.5K | $368K | C | 0xea653d…0cba | ||
| Yair Lapid | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $3.3K | $1.39M | C | 0x45a791…590e | ||
| Yossi Cohen | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $8.1K | $1.97M | C | 0xa653be…cb7d | ||
| Moshe Feiglin | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $7.9K | $1.41M | C | 0x673db9…e4d3 | ||
| Ayelet Shaked | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $791 | $1.46M | C | 0x80a849…3b3b | ||
| Israel Katz | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $1.6K | $616K | C | 0xb25a93…86e9 | ||
| Nir Barkat | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $1.8K | $1.38M | C | 0xd86255…92dd | ||
| Amir Ohana | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $30K | $2.36M | C | 0x8cbdd0…18d0 | ||
| Person G | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x63ae98…351f | ||
| Person H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c4df2…c511 | ||
| Person I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3c4504…c073 | ||
| Person J | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x059c79…69f5 | ||
| Person K | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfdbf48…9750 | ||
| Person L | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcf8600…aa7a | ||
| Person M | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x49fedc…5936 | ||
| Person N | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x36b883…47d8 | ||
| Person O | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x001e8a…ab12 | ||
| Another person | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xac1bbb…2be5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
official information from the Government of Israel from rules text
recent wire items
- Netanyahu PM odds split near 50% on massive volume 47% · $11M 24h
- Polymarket prices Netanyahu's return to PM at 47%, a near-coin-flip with no clear lean.
- 24h volume of $11M equals 41% of all-time handle, signaling an exceptional capital rush.
- Fresh attention likely tied to Israeli election developments or coalition-forming news breaking now.
- Contract resolves on whether Netanyahu holds the PM role after the next government is formed.
- Netanyahu's return to PM odds sit below 50% 46% · $11.1M 24h
- Polymarket prices Netanyahu below 50%, a near-coin-flip on his political comeback.
- 24h volume of $11.1M is 41% of all-time flow, signaling a concentrated burst of fresh attention.
- Israeli election cycle is drawing peak engagement; odds below even suggest the race is genuinely contested.
- Resolves on confirmation of next Israeli Prime Minister.
- Netanyahu PM odds sit at 50% through a massive volume surge 50% · $11.6M 24h
- Even-money pricing signals maximum market uncertainty over Netanyahu's return to power.
- Polymarket logged $11.6M in 24h, 45% of all-time volume flooding in at once.
- Israeli political landscape in flux; fresh capital is forcing the contract toward resolution.
- Resolves on formation of next Israeli government following 2026 elections.
- Market stacks against Ohana ascending to Israeli PM 0% · $538K 24h
- Polymarket assigns zero probability to Amir Ohana becoming Israel's next Prime Minister.
- $538K in 24h is 33% of all-time volume, a significant single-session conviction flush.
- Flow likely driven by Netanyahu coalition developments rendering Ohana a non-viable successor path.
- Zero price with high volume suggests institutional desks are definitively closing the tail-risk position.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-05G08PPSM2",
"slug": "who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",
"question": "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"israel-politics",
"prime-minister",
"elections-2026",
"geopolitics",
"leadership-succession",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 28,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31061198,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Government of Israel",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}