Will anyone announce a Presidential run before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 72 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | — | $12K | C | 0xd9a9a7…c565 | ||
| Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | — | $16K | C | 0x78305c…db8f | ||
| Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | — | $61K | C | 0x809eaa…7b5c | ||
| Kamala Harris announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $43 | $42K | C | 0x36114d…5873 | ||
| Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $9.8K | C | 0xbfff23…b3f6 | ||
| Andy Beshear announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $8.4K | C | 0x6d7bc6…9cbc | ||
| Mark Kelly announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $472 | $8.5K | C | 0x0cdc3b…38f4 | ||
| Brian Kemp announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $2.8K | C | 0xdacc70…9e34 | ||
| Matt Gaetz announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $2.7K | C | 0xa0d689…0b77 | ||
| Tucker Carlson announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $17K | C | 0x2387ae…79dd | ||
| Steve Bannon announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $14K | C | 0x60cb90…78a5 | ||
| Cory Booker announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 9.4% | — | $12K | C | 0xa09707…0fee | ||
| Candace Owens announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 9.2% | $18 | $4.7K | C | 0x2aef67…abfc | ||
| Donald Trump announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 8.1% | — | $12K | C | 0xf4e255…3d0f | ||
| J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $2.9K | C | 0x1d4c55…be8b | ||
| Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $2 | $7.5K | C | 0xb613a1…4efb | ||
| Rand Paul announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $67 | $17K | C | 0x4b5722…ac64 | ||
| Don Lemon announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $1.2K | C | 0x0c7e70…e676 | ||
| Mark Cuban announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $6.7K | C | 0x888f97…0e93 | ||
| George Clooney announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $5.0K | C | 0xa4c8a7…77f9 | ||
| Marco Rubio announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $335 | $7.7K | C | 0x5006bf…5c95 | ||
| Hunter Biden announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.1% | — | $51K | C | 0xe147f7…60ba | ||
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $64 | $41K | C | 0x59a624…a803 | ||
| Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $118 | $1.5K | C | 0x3e6115…64a7 | ||
| Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $2.8K | C | 0x190b49…f115 | ||
| Ron DeSantis announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $3 | $2.3K | C | 0x30094b…ad3f | ||
| John Thune announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $10 | $3.1K | C | 0xab2678…657b | ||
| Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $20K | C | 0x71dcc7…97bc | ||
| Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.5% | — | $4.8K | C | 0x7c6a08…8865 | ||
| Erika Kirk announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.3% | — | $23K | C | 0xba4fd9…cd85 | ||
| Tim Walz announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $10 | $4.5K | C | 0x754838…cd47 | ||
| Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $16K | C | 0xe88fde…abc8 | ||
| Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $5.5K | C | 0xf618b0…877a | ||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $13 | $14K | C | 0xf7f9d3…5d2c | ||
| Tom Brady announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $12 | $9.3K | C | 0x6217f9…ef8b | ||
| Kristi Noem announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.5% | — | $20K | C | 0x2651d3…3530 | ||
| Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.4% | $11 | $5.9K | C | 0xfc2228…c23a | ||
| Ivanka Trump announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.4% | $42 | $32K | C | 0x3a4346…0fdb | ||
| Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $6 | $9.3K | C | 0xdbaef0…4f5f | ||
| Gina Raimondo announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | — | $4.0K | C | 0x579e14…392f | ||
| Jared Polis announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $70 | $5.6K | C | 0x4e5d47…79fb | ||
| J.D. Vance announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $1.4K | $28K | C | 0x53141d…91f3 | ||
| Nikki Haley announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $16 | $3.2K | C | 0xa01945…8848 | ||
| Greg Abbott announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $25 | $3.9K | C | 0xb1d3e0…8ec3 | ||
| Elon Musk announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $12 | $8.9K | C | 0xb6ca1f…a6d1 | ||
| Jon Stewart announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.3% | $7 | $3.2K | C | 0x9c3836…7221 | ||
| Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.2% | $27 | $19K | C | 0x8e7c4e…a7b7 | ||
| Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.2% | $100 | $13K | C | 0x9a65d6…3958 | ||
| Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.1% | — | $35K | C | 0x5c0140…319f | ||
| Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.1% | — | $6.5K | C | 0xe33dc2…fd2e | ||
| Ted Cruz announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.1% | $40 | $14K | C | 0x89ff74…a7a1 | ||
| Wes Moore announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $42 | $6.8K | C | 0x3ec944…39fa | ||
| Michelle Obama announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.6% | $12 | $14K | C | 0x5289dd…9386 | ||
| Elise Stefanik announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.6% | $20 | $3.6K | C | 0xf010e4…d624 | ||
| MrBeast announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.4% | — | $29K | C | 0x152e3b…0f9c | ||
| John Fetterman announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | — | $6.8K | C | 0xa27ff8…d3ad | ||
| Liz Cheney announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | $80 | $2.0K | C | 0x7c75f4…61b3 | ||
| Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | — | $3.2K | C | 0x6c08d3…e5b1 | ||
| Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | — | $13K | C | 0x2aa539…46f2 | ||
| Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $9.5K | C | 0x3ea2f7…64cd | ||
| LeBron James announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.8% | — | $16K | C | 0xda431b…3128 | ||
| Barack Obama announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.4% | — | $11K | C | 0x62526f…9faa | ||
| Roy Cooper announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | — | $6.4K | C | 0x8dc4ec…6871 | ||
| Phil Murphy announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | — | $3.8K | C | 0xc929dc…6c74 | ||
| Josh Hawley announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | — | $7.9K | C | 0xb699ad…0e99 | ||
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $11K | C | 0xf73413…333a | ||
| Byron Donalds announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $9.9K | C | 0xb8f08e…b733 | ||
| Mike Pence announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $16K | C | 0xe1e8c1…458e | ||
| Katie Britt announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.9% | — | $26K | C | 0x878030…defd | ||
| Andrew Yang announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $15 | $14K | C | 0x50b12c…b02c | ||
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $7.6K | C | 0xe5f107…5fac | ||
| Candace Owens announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x75389b…79ef |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Odds hold low on a Trump 2028 run announcement 9% · $27K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Trump presidential-run announcement before 2027 at 9%, market treats it as unlikely near-term.
- 55% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, a concentrated spike on a question with thin prior liquidity.
- Political speculation around Trump's post-midterm positioning likely catalyzed fresh bets.
- Resolves before Jan 1, 2027; any formal campaign filing would resolve YES immediately.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4WMQ7GM282",
"slug": "who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027",
"question": "Will anyone announce a Presidential run before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"presidential-run",
"us-politics",
"candidate-announcements"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 72,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 896277,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}