Will TikTok be acquired? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026) [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Ellison/Oracle | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $565K | C | 0xa529f6…0173 | ||
| AppLovin | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $27 | $38K | C | 0x1092e1…ca26 | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $164 | $141K | C | 0x2cd20a…2eaf | ||
| Amazon | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $14 | $72K | C | 0xdf0ad9…278f | ||
| Meta | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $34 | $137K | C | 0x3e0b13…7574 | ||
| Walmart | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $830 | $85K | C | 0x4dc838…3c0c | ||
| Elon Musk / X (Twitter) | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $6 | $93K | C | 0x626d23…3dd0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will AppLovin acquire TikTok? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Meta acquire TikTok? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Amazon acquire TikTok? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Walmart acquire TikTok? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| YES | Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? | polymarket | 2025-12-22 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-acquire-tiktok-559/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-acquire-tiktok-559 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-acquire-tiktok-559") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G8JK3545S6",
"slug": "who-will-acquire-tiktok-559",
"question": "Will TikTok be acquired? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026)",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"tech-acquisition",
"tiktok",
"2026",
"corporate-control",
"cross-border-deal"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1131280,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}