Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election? [ resolves 2026-09-30 (69D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 34 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Russia (ER) | 2026-09-30 | 57.0% | $31K | $5.89M | C | 0x502a94…ed64 | ||
| New People (NL) | 2026-09-30 | 37.3% | $3.6K | $1.76M | C | 0xc9615b…50e7 | ||
| The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 2026-09-30 | 3.7% | $1.0K | $2.90M | C | 0x8c48f3…439a | ||
| The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 2026-09-30 | 2.5% | $2.2K | $1.11M | C | 0x7b9199…e252 | ||
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 2026-09-30 | 0.3% | $955 | $1.15M | C | 0xa04f9a…425b | ||
| Rodina | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | $1.6K | $1.81M | C | 0x2636a0…5c46 | ||
| Civic Platform (GP) | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $1.24M | C | 0x247eab…8034 | ||
| Other | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x09b62d…0e65 | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc65fb0…7e4e | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x771aad…dcfb | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc24d49…d2d7 | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3a2237…7c5a | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb28818…bf17 | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6db6cc…70d2 | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7216f9…a466 | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb67d2d…2ca2 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb4104a…ba57 | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe3d35b…3bf3 | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1b1308…f828 | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb6d0ec…3edf | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf16968…69bc | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc9f126…3051 | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb31b49…3a3a | ||
| Party P | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf4ef37…953e | ||
| Party Q | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe0150e…f2ca | ||
| Party R | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x10398c…9842 | ||
| Party S | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa12fa4…86ab | ||
| Party T | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x02d0a4…769d | ||
| Party U | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x935758…9c67 | ||
| Party V | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdcd150…e9fd | ||
| Party W | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe1b6a6…aeca | ||
| Party X | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfc671c…e0bd | ||
| Party Y | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4642b6…5bea | ||
| Party Z | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb7a553…4103 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XS1TS19GP7",
"slug": "which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",
"question": "Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"russia",
"parliamentary-seats",
"2026",
"party-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 34,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15861330,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}