Will any country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 94.0% | — | $76 | C | 0x160a3d…a79b | ||
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 32.0% | — | $66K | C | 0x82ec29…4942 | ||
| Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | — | $69 | C | 0x428fbb…66f0 | ||
| Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 19.0% | $868 | $49K | C | 0x0150e8…89d9 | ||
| Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 17.0% | $749 | $60K | C | 0xd826ba…4f13 | ||
| Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | $1.0K | $159K | C | 0xc1bd3b…4237 | ||
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | $8 | $154K | C | 0x15f442…8ec6 | ||
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $42K | C | 0x4e4d65…e888 | ||
| Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $30 | $148K | C | 0x985b12…8e7f | ||
| Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | — | — | — | C | 0xf164c1…c982 | ||
| Will Pakistan join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $153 | C | 0x91825d…376d | ||
| Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $17 | C | 0x6cc27a…e183 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
"slug": "which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027",
"question": "Will any country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"abraham-accords",
"middle-east",
"diplomatic-recognition",
"2026",
"international-relations"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 679410,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}