Which country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | $17 | $297 | C | 0x428fbb…66f0 | ||
| Somaliland | 2026-12-31 | 22.0% | — | $105K | C | 0x82ec29…4942 | ||
| Syria | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $9 | $157K | C | 0x985b12…8e7f | ||
| Saudi Arabia | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $28K | $248K | C | 0x15f442…8ec6 | ||
| Lebanon | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $72K | C | 0xd826ba…4f13 | ||
| Pakistan | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $26 | $8.9K | C | 0x91825d…376d | ||
| Jordan | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $14 | $8.3K | C | 0x160a3d…a79b | ||
| Kuwait | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $20 | $57K | C | 0x4e4d65…e888 | ||
| Azerbaijan | 2026-12-31 | 6.8% | — | $162K | C | 0x0150e8…89d9 | ||
| Turkey | 2026-12-31 | 5.6% | — | $22K | C | 0x6cc27a…e183 | ||
| Oman | 2026-12-31 | 3.2% | $156 | $175K | C | 0xc1bd3b…4237 | ||
| Qatar | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $247 | C | 0xf164c1…c982 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official government statements from rules text · editorial
- a consensus for credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Turkey joining Abraham Accords by 2027 stays a long shot 6% · $158K 24h
- Polymarket prices Turkey-Abraham Accords by 2027 at just 6%, market treats it as a tail event.
- 24h volume of $158K equals 34% of all-time handle, a sharp single-day concentration.
- Fresh attention likely tied to renewed Gulf-Turkey diplomatic signaling or back-channel reports.
- Contract resolves end-2026; current odds leave little room for a surprise breakthrough.
- Turkey joining Abraham Accords by 2027 stays a long shot 6% · $129K 24h
- Polymarket prices Turkey's accession before 2027 at just 6%, the market treats this as a tail scenario.
- $129K in 24h represents 42% of all-time volume, a sharp attention spike on a low-probability contract.
- Heavy trading into a 6% price without moving it higher suggests sellers are absorbing fresh bullish interest decisively.
- Resolves if Turkey formally joins before Jan 1, 2027, a binary diplomatic catalyst with limited runway.
- Turkey joining Abraham Accords by 2027 stays a long shot 7% · $131K 24h
- Polymarket prices Turkey-Accords entry before 2027 at just 7%, near-zero conviction.
- 24h volume $131K is 71% of all-time, nearly the entire contract's lifetime traded today.
- Fresh attention likely tied to renewed Middle East normalization diplomacy chatter in late July.
- Resolves no later than end of 2026; current odds leave almost no room for a breakthrough.
- Turkey Abraham Accords entry stays a long shot 5% · $32K 24h
- Polymarket prices Turkey's Accords entry before 2027 at just 5%, near-zero conviction.
- 59% of all-time volume hit in 24h, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention on the question.
- Diplomatic noise around Turkey-Israel normalization likely drew traders to confirm the long-shot read.
- Resolves before Jan 1, 2027; current odds leave little room for a surprise deal.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
"slug": "which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027",
"question": "Which country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east-diplomacy",
"abraham-accords",
"international-relations",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1015046,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official government statements",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus for credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}