Will additional countries recognize Israel by June 30? [ resolves — ]
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 11.0% | — | $87K | C | 0xfd0c90…58f1 | ||
| Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 5.1% | — | $1.7K | C | 0x3721f5…5723 | ||
| Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 5.0% | $5 | $1.9K | C | 0xfec12b…ada9 | ||
| Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 4.2% | $63 | $8.3K | C | 0x366e27…25f7 | ||
| Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 4.0% | — | $5.6K | C | 0x3e4f06…8c09 | ||
| Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 3.3% | — | $14K | C | 0xdf5191…0f1f | ||
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 2.9% | $1.7K | $54K | C | 0x274cec…6732 | ||
| Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 2.8% | $238 | $37K | C | 0xc806bd…d075 | ||
| Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 2.6% | $448 | $17K | C | 0x7ac4ee…d312 | ||
| Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 2.3% | $107 | $2.6K | C | 0x32711a…2435 | ||
| Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 2.0% | $978 | $26K | C | 0x84872e…f75e | ||
| Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 1.8% | $666 | $18K | C | 0x2cb2e2…7ac5 | ||
| Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 1.7% | — | $34K | C | 0x344a8f…2e57 | ||
| Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 1.6% | $179 | $50K | C | 0x5e6e46…ee03 | ||
| Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30 | — | 0.8% | $825 | $36K | C | 0x87481d…e290 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
"slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30",
"question": "Will additional countries recognize Israel by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"international-recognition",
"israel-relations",
"diplomacy",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 393957,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}