Will any additional countries recognize Israel by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | $1.7K | $1.9K | C | 0x9f4985…8181 | ||
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 15.0% | $289 | $369 | C | 0x5f3dab…bfe3 | ||
| Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 15.0% | $748 | $1.0K | C | 0x2e02dc…0de7 | ||
| Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $220 | $270 | C | 0x01248b…eb72 | ||
| Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $439 | $439 | C | 0x115600…35f0 | ||
| Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $501 | $527 | C | 0x661301…de1b | ||
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $2.5K | $2.5K | C | 0x5eb396…6d2d | ||
| Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $5.2K | $5.2K | C | 0xf4a4b3…a128 | ||
| Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $120 | $140 | C | 0x890cd6…edf6 | ||
| Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $3.4K | $3.5K | C | 0xe7f3b9…724a | ||
| Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $5.2K | $5.2K | C | 0xee2199…3f19 | ||
| Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $408 | $408 | C | 0x860001…4ebc | ||
| Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $2.1K | $2.1K | C | 0x4b0aad…edac | ||
| Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $1.6K | $1.6K | C | 0xeadcd7…f3f0 | ||
| Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $116 | $183 | C | 0xa8ab74…22ba | ||
| Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $5.7K | $5.7K | C | 0x7ba444…a929 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
"slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31",
"question": "Will any additional countries recognize Israel by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-recognition",
"international-relations",
"diplomacy",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31262,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}