Will an AI system reach a rating of 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 51.0% | $60 | $17K | C | 0x2f2c1c…ecaf | ||
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 35.0% | — | $9.1K | C | 0x57678b…f448 | ||
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena… | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $8.9K | C | 0xc48b0f…a64c | ||
| Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena… | 2026-12-31 | 1.9% | $46 | $9.7K | C | 0xff51f2…c53b | ||
| Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in… | 2026-12-31 | 1.4% | — | $6.4K | C | 0xa87276…847e | ||
| Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $6.7K | C | 0x66ac2e…0485 | ||
| Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena… | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $6.1K | C | 0xb5574c…0558 | ||
| Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena… | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $5.3K | C | 0xa1c9cf…9313 | ||
| Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in… | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $4.7K | C | 0x25d1a9…1c98 | ||
| Will a company not listed here be the first to have an AI model hit 1550 on… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x66a157…e42a | ||
| Will Company F be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x85fa05…4811 | ||
| Will Company I be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9cc873…1b63 | ||
| Will Company K be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc9d246…264d | ||
| Will Company P be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9d34e6…db7d | ||
| Will Company T be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x75d5e9…5dda | ||
| Will Company V be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x64c618…8235 | ||
| Will Company X be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5a77f5…1eaf | ||
| Will Company E be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe3e842…7412 | ||
| Will Company M be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x260264…41e3 | ||
| Will Company O be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x420b95…ef52 | ||
| Will Company Q be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6e529e…dede | ||
| Will Company N be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb4ee2c…5578 | ||
| Will Company R be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2bca51…3833 | ||
| Will Company Y be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe9f427…2d11 | ||
| Will Company D be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x64f55e…9698 | ||
| Will Company G be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x802fbd…bd0b | ||
| Will Company H be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xeb0603…db77 | ||
| Will Company J be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x946cea…0ed4 | ||
| Will Company L be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x08b111…f0f2 | ||
| Will Company S be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaa5fbd…9dce | ||
| Will Company U be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa14637…92e5 | ||
| Will Company W be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot… | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1801e0…8489 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4J2HXNW2N4",
"slug": "which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026",
"question": "Will an AI system reach a rating of 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"openai",
"ai",
"chatbot-arena",
"model-benchmarks",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 73610,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 53,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}