Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2024? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 55.0% | $544 | $5.4K | C | 0x79307c…c268 | ||
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 51.0% | $345 | $5.8K | C | 0x6f3c4a…6773 | ||
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 19.0% | $780 | $4.0K | C | 0xa796a9…f36b | ||
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 15.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x1acdbd…a3a0 | ||
| Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $60 | $2.1K | C | 0xe650ad…66e6 | ||
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $130 | $177 | C | 0x076729…6fa9 | ||
| Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $120 | $452 | C | 0xd6e6a8…1e83 | ||
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $939 | C | 0xd9eaac…3374 | ||
| Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x5ea936…b513 | ||
| Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $901 | C | 0xa43f0f…fc3c | ||
| Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $388 | C | 0x680560…9eeb | ||
| Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $618 | C | 0xab86b9…b511 | ||
| Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $2.4K | C | 0xff372e…c8ce | ||
| Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $1.5K | C | 0xec0012…c2f5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-00X7G9NNP9",
"slug": "which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31",
"question": "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2024?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-models",
"tech-leadership",
"business",
"2026",
"benchmarking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 27571,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 55,
"rcg_caps": [
"none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}