Which bills will become law in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Housing for the 21st Century Act | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | $45 | $30K | C | 0x28d6d1…21c2 | ||
| The Critical-minerals stockpile | 2026-12-31 | 24.0% | — | $51 | C | 0x2d7293…e23b | ||
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization | 2026-12-31 | 21.0% | $777 | $80K | C | 0x612126…33e5 | ||
| AI-chip export licensing | 2026-12-31 | 21.0% | — | $41 | C | 0xc2a2b9…2e30 | ||
| Film/TV production expensing | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | — | $50 | C | 0x66bb72…24fa | ||
| Export-control chip security | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | — | $46 | C | 0xbd264d…1f40 | ||
| The DEFIANCE Act | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $23 | C | 0x8d7b8e…5883 | ||
| Trump Airport | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $58 | $1.3K | C | 0x9e9d66…c627 | ||
| The Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $3.2K | C | 0x463787…f07c | ||
| $2.50 Coin | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $202 | C | 0xe73ed5…e2a6 | ||
| Credit-card routing competition | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $59 | C | 0x053bf7…0a51 | ||
| The SHOWER Act | 2026-12-31 | 1.4% | — | $218 | C | 0x5bdd68…7b82 | ||
| The SELF DRIVE Act | 2026-12-31 | 1.3% | — | $57 | C | 0x58d735…f897 | ||
| Data center utility cost protection | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $87 | C | 0xbcf92d…8b7e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes the S. 1837 (119th) — “DEFIANCE Act of 2025.”
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (4)
- congress.gov venue-listed
- congress.gov venue-listed
- Library of Congress from rules text · editorial
- other official information from the government of the United States from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? | polymarket | 2026-07-13 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L4XLBWP2Z8",
"slug": "which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026",
"question": "Which bills will become law in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"congress",
"trump",
"politics",
"us-legislation",
"2026",
"bill-passage"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 115927,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "Congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "other official information from the government of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}