What will Trump say in August? [ resolved 2026-08-31 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 35 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| "Ass" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | — | $3.4K | C | 0xd412b9…96d0 | ||
| "Shit" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $235 | $1.9K | C | 0x74ac11…b273 | ||
| "Slob" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $10 | $528 | C | 0x905f6f…6fcb | ||
| "State of the Union" or "State of Union" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | — | — | C | 0xfa63c8…4b66 | ||
| "Marxist" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $123 | $404 | C | 0x0c5fa3…3f90 | ||
| "Crooked Joe" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $24 | $53 | C | 0x2ad944…430d | ||
| "Dictionary" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $5 | $5 | C | 0x57ab79…17f3 | ||
| "Gay" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $115 | $1.0K | C | 0xde4a0d…5db2 | ||
| "No No No" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $224 | $1.0K | C | 0x2f331e…bbfc | ||
| "Through the Roof" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $285 | $2.9K | C | 0xc00771…271a | ||
| "Midterm" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $50 | $1.7K | C | 0xf9b492…edbf | ||
| "Six Seven" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $11 | $1.1K | C | 0xcee47a…c721 | ||
| "Future President" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | — | $185 | C | 0xaa1871…35d3 | ||
| "Affordable" or "Affordability" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | — | $689 | C | 0x2e6531…cb45 | ||
| "Pelosi" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | — | $92 | C | 0xfd821c…5173 | ||
| "American Dream" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $255 | $271 | C | 0xa64084…39c6 | ||
| "World Cup" | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | — | — | C | 0x12af90…e95a | ||
| "Red Card" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $259 | C | 0x9c8bc2…fefe | ||
| "Death to America" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $300 | C | 0xe23af9…c995 | ||
| "Sucker" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $895 | C | 0xd70cc9…ab25 | ||
| "Garbage" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $1 | $2 | C | 0xfe4a96…88e0 | ||
| "Let Me Finish" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | 0x434765…3323 | ||
| "Potato" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $74 | $88 | C | 0x8e2f13…d750 | ||
| "Tango" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $5 | $32 | C | 0x22132c…51f6 | ||
| "Central Casting" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $1.3K | $4.9K | C | 0x3b3c34…cfe6 | ||
| "Antifa" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $17 | $2.1K | C | 0x2f1d02…f51c | ||
| "Cocaine" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $257 | C | 0xc1eff1…9c2e | ||
| "Movie Star" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa5f777…8c8d | ||
| "Green New Scam" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $76 | C | 0xd13120…8c4b | ||
| "State of the Art" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $142 | C | 0x87d61c…31fb | ||
| "Soaking Wet" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $5 | $6.4K | C | 0x33e543…4895 | ||
| "Presidential Walk of Fame" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9a0ef3…0da5 | ||
| "Epstein" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $104 | C | 0x4c9115…ade8 | ||
| "Moscow" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | $35 | $1.7K | C | 0xe37088…3655 | ||
| "Thomas Jefferson" | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | $260 | C | 0xffed8f…593b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Trump say "Moscow" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Cocaine" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Movie Star" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Green New Scam" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Presidential Walk of Fame" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "State of the Art" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Sucker" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Thomas Jefferson" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Epstein" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Soaking Wet" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Central Casting" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Antifa" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Let Me Finish" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Potato" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Tango" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Garbage" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Red Card" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Death to America" in August? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Gay" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-22 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Crooked Joe" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Future President" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Ass" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-15 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Slob" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Six Seven" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-11 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Pelosi" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "No No No" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "World Cup" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Marxist" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-06 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-06 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Through the Roof" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-06 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "American Dream" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "State of the Union" or "State of Union" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Dictionary" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Shit" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Midterm" in August? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (35 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-trump-say-in-august-20260728181847522/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-trump-say-in-august-20260728181847522 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-trump-say-in-august-20260728181847522") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZH5M3MP7C0",
"slug": "what-will-trump-say-in-august-20260728181847522",
"question": "What will Trump say in August?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"speech-content",
"august-2026",
"prediction-market",
"rhetoric"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 35,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32797,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}