Will GTA VI be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolved 2026-07-31 ]
Another pandemic before GTA VI?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire | 2026-05-09 | 54.0% | — | $1.68M | C | 0x9c1a95…5763 | ||
| Will Drake release Iceman | 2026-05-15 | 99.9% | — | $185K | C | 0xc829ed…62ff | ||
| Another pandemic | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $38 | $29K | C | 0x71b1cc…b59e | ||
| New Rihanna Album | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $464 | $871K | C | 0x1fad72…72be | ||
| New Playboi Carti Album | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $32 | $749K | C | 0x50ddb9…3dcc | ||
| Will Jesus Christ return | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $2.3K | $11.87M | C | 0x32b09f…2f4c | ||
| Trump out as President | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $106 | $703K | C | 0x84f8b7…66e9 | ||
| Will China invades Taiwan | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $73 | $1.92M | C | 0x7b49b9…0f11 | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000 | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $313 | $4.69M | C | 0xbb57cc…89d2 | ||
| Will GPT-6 be released | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $6 | $685K | C | 0x0ea800…77a2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and Grand Theft Auto VI's officially release in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for another pandemic's occurrence will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible sources from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENDING | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 50% |
| PENDING | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 50% |
| PENDING | Trump out as President before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 50% |
| PENDING | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 50% |
| PENDING | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 50% |
| PENDING | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 50% |
| PENDING | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 50% |
| PENDING | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 50% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-happen-before-gta-vi") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
"slug": "what-will-happen-before-gta-vi",
"question": "Will GTA VI be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"gta-vi-timeline",
"before-2026",
"event-prediction",
"speculative"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23374056,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 12,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible sources",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}